FULL ARTICLES

IRAN AND ISRAEL: BEST OF ENEMIES?

Iran and Israel: best of enemies?
Daily Star, Beirut
October 10, 2003

The prospective Israel-Hizbullah prisoner swap that has been discussed in recent weeks is perhaps more than a bilateral deal that also happens to involve Iran and Germany. Given the close relationship between Tehran and Hizbullah, Iranian involvement was not entirely unexpected. This leads one to reflect on the prospects for an improvement in Iranian-Israeli relations Iranian interests cannot rule this out even if such an option is highly improbable at present.

According to press reports, Israel seeks information on the whereabouts of air force navigator Ron Arad, the remains of three Israeli soldiers and the release of Israeli reservist and businessman Elhanan Tennenbaum. In return, Hizbullah wants the release of all Lebanese prisoners, including two officials directly or indirectly affiliated with the party, Abdul Karim Obeid and Mustafa Dirani, as well as that of Palestinian and Arab detainees.

The Iranian angle was hinted at in early August in the Tel Aviv Russian-language daily Novosti Nedeli. Citing anonymous Israeli government sources, the daily said that during Iranian-American negotiations over the possible exchange of Al-Qaeda suspects in Iran for members of the Iranian Mujahideen Khalq opposition group in Iraq, an Iranian representative raised the possibility of releasing Tennenbaum and repatriating the dead soldiers' remains. Washington reportedly rejected the proposal, but according to Novosti Nedeli the Iranian and Israeli sides pursued their talks. Added to the mix was Tehran's demand that four Iranian diplomats who disappeared in Lebanon in 1982 be released. Iran believes Israel is holding them.

Confirmation of an Iranian angle appeared in late September, when Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said that Iranians imprisoned in Europe might be part of a deal with Hizbullah. This appeared to be a reference to Iranian intelligence officer Kazem Darabi, who along with several Lebanese men was convicted by a Berlin court in April 1997 for the 1992 killings of Kurdish dissidents. The role of German mediator Ernst Urlau in the negotiations is not unprecedented. In 1996, for example, Berlin brokered the exchange of two dead Israeli soldiers for 45 prisoners and the remains of 123 Lebanese combatants. In late-1999, five Hizbullah members held by Israel were released following negotiations also involving Iran and Germany.

As of Oct. 9, the status of the Hizbullah-Israeli negotiations remained undetermined, with questions being raised about Tennenbaum's physical state and with Arad's family trying to block Dirani's release through a court injunction. Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz asserted on Oct. 3 that Arad was alive and that Iran was responsible for returning him to Israel. Arad's family repeated the charge a few days later. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi reaffirmed that Tehran had no information on the airman.

Less obscure is the current state of Iranian-Israeli relations. It seems unlikely that any deal, whether it involves Iranians or not, will have a positive impact on a very hostile relationship.

During a military parade in Tehran on Sept. 22, for example, Iran's new 1,300-kilometer-range Shihab-3 missiles bore the slogan "Israel must be wiped off the map." At an August conference at Tehran University organized by the student committee for the Support for the Palestinian Intifada, a group headed by Hojatoleslam Ali Akbar Mohtashami-Pur, the final resolution called for "annihilation of the Zionist regime."

Speakers praised Palestinian suicide bombings in Israel, referring to them as "martyrdom operations." Iran also hosted Support for the Palestinian Intifada conferences in April 2001 and June 2002. At the latter event representatives of Hamas, Hizbullah, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command heard Mohtashami-Pur refer to Israel as a "cancerous tumor."

It is too simplistic to dismiss such statements as rhetoric meant only for internal consumption. Words have an impact on perceptions and can strengthen preconceptions. In an August interview with the French daily Le Figaro, Sharon referred specifically to the Shihab missiles and Tehran's relationship with Hamas, Hizbullah and Islamic Jihad, adding: "In the Middle East, Iran is now (Israel's) greatest threat." During a September trip to India, he tried to dissuade New Delhi from transferring technology to Iran.

Iranian officials are masters of realpolitik. Tehran criticized the US attack on Taleban-led Afghanistan, but cooperated with the US military and with the post-war negotiations in Bonn. Even though it has criticized the US-led war in Iraq and the subsequent occupation, Tehran has tacitly recognized the interim Iraqi Governing Council and will participate in a multilateral donors conference in Madrid later this month. For all the Iranian chanting of "death to America," Iran and the US hold intermittent bilateral discussions on matters of mutual concern.

Can this lead to expectations of a similar trend in Iranian-Israeli relations? Iran's hostility to Israel has religious roots and is also a welcome source of agreement with Iran's predominantly Arab and Sunni neighbors. These factors, plus the negligible direct benefits of relations with Israel, suggest that Iran will see little advantage in changing the status quo. Nor is Israel keen to improve its relations with Tehran. After the bombing in Haifa last Saturday that killed 19 people and wounded 60 others, Sharon's adviser, Dore Gold, described an "axis of terror that begins in Iran."

Such mutual perceptions play strongly against bilateral, government-to-government contacts in the near future. This could change, however, as the current generation of Iranian leaders dies off. Approximately two-thirds of the Iranian population is under the age of 30, and has no memory of such formative experiences as life under the pro-Israel monarchy, activism during the 1978-1979 revolution, or fighting in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. They will undoubtedly sympathize with the Palestinians, but are unlikely to support the activities of groups like Hamas. Until, indeed if, such a change occurs, Iranian-Israeli contacts will continue to take place through intermediaries, even when they are of direct concern to both sides.

 

US AND IRAN IN SECRET PEACE TALKS

US and Iran in secret peace talks
By Jason Burke and Dan de Luce in Tehran
The Observer (UK)
October 5, 2003

Secret 'back-door' diplomacy involving some of the Middle East's most influential figures has led to unexpected signals of a rapprochement between America and Iran despite angry public rhetoric on both sides.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran remain high, particularly over the question of Iran's nuclear programme and alleged attempts to destabilise the US occupation in Iraq, but a tentative dialogue has been established.

One go-between has been King Abdullah II of Jordan, who visited Tehran shortly before meeting President Bush at Camp David last month. King Abdullah is understood to have been briefed by Mohammed Khatami, the Iranian president, and Kamal Kharrazi, the foreign minister, and to have transferred their 'analysis of the regional situation' to the Americans.

Last week US officials confirmed that they had received 'positive signals' from Iran. 'There is some indication that the Iranians want to talk to us about a range of issues and we are responding appropriately,' one State Department official said.

However, analysts say that different groups in Iran are reacting to the country's new security situation in different ways, and the seemingly contradictory stances reflect deep divisions within Iranian politics and society. Religious hardliners, who control many of the key institutions, are taking a firm stance over Iran's nuclear programme and are working to cause problems for the US-led forces in Iraq. However, Iranian reformists, such as Khatami and Kharrazi, are taking a more conciliatory position.

Iran is expected to attend an international donors conference on the post-war reconstruction of Iraq in Madrid later this month, while continuing to take a hard line on the nuclear issue.

'As much trouble as we have with them on the nuclear issue, we have a slightly different relationship with them on Iraq,' Richard Armitage, the American deputy secretary of state, said last week. 'They have big interests in stability in Iraq.'

Another issue causing tensions is the alleged presence of senior al-Qaeda figures in Iran. Here differences in the US administration mirror those in Iran. American hawks, particularly those close to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, claim that Iranian hardliners are harbouring militants and facilitating their terror campaign. Their opponents in Washington say that any Sunni Muslim Islamic militants held by the Iranian regime are in prison and unable to operate.

The most pressing issue for all remains the suspicion that Iran is trying to develop a nuclear bomb.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has asked for prompt access to sensitive nuclear sites, giving Iran one last chance to come clean about the true nature of its nuclear programme.

Inspections last summer found traces of weapons-grade uranium and obstruction of the IAEA's work could lead to UN sanctions. The IAEA has demanded that Iran cease all uranium enrichment activity and prove it has no weapons programme by 31 October.

Senior Iranian conservatives last week dismissed the terms of the 31 October deadline. At the weekly Friday prayers ceremony at Tehran University, the powerful former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, condemned the IAEA resolution.

'The hypocritical policy of the Americans and Westerners has no justification,' Rafsanjani told worshippers amid chants of 'Death to America', though he did indicate that Iran would be willing to meet some international demands in return for guarantees protecting Iran's sovereignty.

Dr Ali Ansari, lecturer in Middle Eastern history at the University of Durham, said that the nuclear issue united many reformists and conservatives. 'Many believe it is their national right to develop a nuclear programme,' he said.

 

IRAN MAY ASSIST WITH RECONSTRUCTION IN IRAQ

Iran May Assist With Reconstruction in Iraq
By Robin Wright
LA Times
October 4, 2003

Despite a quarter-century of tension with Iran, the United States has reached out to the Islamic Republic for help in the postwar reconstruction of Iraq - and is getting it, according to U.S. and Iranian officials.

Iran will participate in an international donors conference this month in Madrid, and may end up as one of the few aid contributors. It is already offering to provide water, electricity and technical assistance to Iraq, a top Iranian diplomat said Friday. He said his government was prepared to pledge additional aid, although probably not cash.

Iran's possible role in Iraq comes as Washington and Tehran try to resume the behind-the-scenes discussions they aborted in May, senior U.S. officials said.

"We've seen some signs and heard from others that the Iranians want to talk," a senior State Department official said Friday. "We're sending some signals back."

Although the countries differ on many issues, the key steps toward resuming talks are working together on Iraq and Iranian cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency on inspections, amid U.S. charges that Tehran is secretly developing a weapon off its new energy program.

Armitage Hopeful

After months of allegations about Iran's nuclear ambitions, the State Department sounded almost conciliatory this week about Tehran.

Iran is supportive of Iraq's U.S.-appointed Governing Council, and Washington hopes Tehran will "step up to the plate big-time" in pledging reconstruction funds, Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage told a House Appropriations subcommittee this week.

"On the question of Iran, as much trouble as we have on the nuclear question, we have a slightly different relationship with them on the question of Iraq. They have welcomed the Governing Council," Armitage told the panel.

"They will participate in the donor conference," he said. "They have big interests in stability in Iraq."

Washington, which severed ties with Tehran in 1980, has been deeply concerned about an Iranian role in Iraq amid fears that Tehran might meddle in the political situation there.

A senior Iranian official confirmed that Iran recently accepted an invitation to attend the donors conference, at which Spain will be host but which has been orchestrated largely by the United States. So far, Britain, Canada and Japan are the only other countries to have indicated they will provide aid, even though dozens of countries may attend, U.S. officials say.

Some U.S. officials suggest that an agreement by Tehran to sign a new protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency could end the standoff - and facilitate new discussions.

"We also know the Iranians are looking to know that if they sign the protocol and abide by the IAEA that that resolves the question," the senior State Department official said. "They'd have to sign it, answer all the questions and cooperate fully and ensure they don't have a nuclear program, then that could resolve the nuclear matter."

But deep divisions remain within the Bush administration about Iran policy. They were underscored when the same Pentagon officials who urged a war against Iraq met this week for the first time with the grandson of Iran's revolutionary leader, the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who advocates U.S. support for regime change in Iran.

The Ayatollah Hossein Khomeini, who left Iran this year and now lives in Baghdad, is calling on the administration to help mobilize opposition to the religious government that his grandfather led to power when the U.S.-backed shah was ousted in 1979.

At a meeting at the Pentagon attended by Undersecretary of Defense Douglas J. Feith, Khomeini asked the United States to hold a conference of Iranian opposition figures, U.S. officials said Friday.

Tehran is ruled by a "ruthless dictatorship," Khomeini said during a speech at the conservative American Enterprise Institute last month.

New Openness

The Pentagon's interest in Khomeini also contrasted with an Armitage statement that hinted at a new openness in the Iranian government. Armitage told the subcommittee that a top Iranian official had publicly complained that Al Qaeda operatives were plotting from inside Iran to hit targets in other countries - activities the official said were hurting Iranian interests.

"[Kamal] Kharrazi, the foreign minister, said for the first time, I believe, that Al Qaeda has committed crimes against Iran's national security by establishing cells to plot operations elsewhere," Armitage said.

"His comments were the first public admission that members of the network headed by [Osama bin Laden] were more than just fugitives from Afghanistan. So something is going on there," Armitage added, calling the comments "rather fascinating."

Iran insists its interest in attending the donors summit and helping reconstruct Iraq is consistent with long-standing policy, reflected in the fact that it dispatched the first delegation to meet with the Governing Council after it was formed. Iran is predominantly Shiite Muslim, as is Iraq. Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq's Shiites were brutally repressed.

"It would be interesting if you listen only to the propaganda coming out of [L. Paul Bremer III, the U.S. civilian administrator in Baghdad], but if you look at Iranian interests, it will be a continuation of our policy to help stabilize Iraq, welcome the Governing Council and strengthen it as the first step for restoring sovereignty for the Iraqi people," the senior Iranian official said.

Tehran has been providing water and other humanitarian supplies to Iraq since the U.S.-led coalition invaded the country in March, he said. And U.S. officials say Iran has offered significant amounts of badly needed electricity, although no arrangement has yet been made.

Washington broke off relations with Tehran after the U.S. Embassy there was seized, and various behind-the-scenes efforts to promote diplomatic rapprochement in the intervening years have failed.

After three meetings this spring, discussions between U.S. and Iranian diplomats were cut off after three suicide bombings against American targets in Saudi Arabia.

Washington charged that suspected Al Qaeda agents had a brief telephone conversation with another agent in Iran, an allegation repeatedly denied by Tehran.

The administration also remains deeply concerned by Iranians and others who have crossed the long and porous border from Iran into Iraq. They include Iranian intelligence agents, U.S. officials say.

More Aid Sought

The United States has hoped that all six of the countries bordering Iraq would provide assistance in Iraq.

Washington has been in talks with Turkey about the potential for providing troops, while Turkey and Syria are possible suppliers of electricity. Jordan has promised to help train Iraq's new police force.

And talks continue with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as well as other Persian Gulf states.

It is not known what if anything Iran might want in exchange for its help.

But Iran's presence at the donors conference, which Secretary of State Colin L. Powell will attend, is particularly striking as the only one of the six without diplomatic relations with Washington.