Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi holds a news conference in Tehran following his victory in last week's rigged elections.
Raisi with Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon in February 2018 (Photo courtesy Al-Arabiya newspaper).
THE MOST RUTHLESS PERSON EVER TO BECOME PRESIDENT OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
[Note by Tom Gross]
Below, I attach three opinion pieces on Iran's new hardline president-elect Ebrahim Raisi, who may be the most ruthless person ever to become president of the Islamic Republic, and is widely believed to be being groomed to succeed 82-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader. The fourth piece below is on the U.S. government seizure of Iran's foreign media websites last week.
Last week, Amnesty International called for Raisi to be investigated for "crimes against humanity" for his key role in the past murder of thousands of Iranian political prisoners.
(I mention Raisi's role in these killings in an interview I gave last week.)
Israel's new Foreign Minister Yair Lapid is expected to meet today (Sunday) with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Rome, to discuss the Iranian nuclear threat.
During a speech at a graduation ceremony for Israeli Air Force pilots on Thursday, Israel's new Prime Minister Naftali Bennett appeared to hint at Israel's role in Wednesday's drone attack on an Iranian nuclear centrifuge production facility outside Tehran.
RUTHLESS ENOUGH?
The writers of the four pieces below are subscribers to this list. In the first piece, Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer for the CIA, writes: "The mullahs' hope is that Raisi is ruthless enough to overcome rising resistance to their rule."
Simon Henderson notes in his piece for The Hill: "Nuclear weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II and never have been used in anger. This template looks like it's changing."
IRANIAN TV: "THAT GUY IS A JEW-SNAKE. AND OBAMA, HE LOOKS COLORED, BUT HE'S REALLY A JEW TOO."
David Pollock writes in the final piece below:
This week, seemingly out of the blue, the U.S. government announced that it had seized the websites of several dozens of Iran's foreign media platforms, including its English-language flagship Press TV and its Arabic-language one, Al-Alam. The practical effects are minor, because Iran quickly announced that much of this is already back online, under different domain names. But the symbolic significance of this unusual move - and for me, its personal resonance as well - are well worth noting?
On Press TV, during President Obama's first year in office, I was featured on a panel about his new approach to U.S. policy in the Middle East. It was a call-in talk show, and the first caller, an American, responded to my comments as follows: "That guy is a Jew-snake. And Obama, he looks colored, but he's really a Jew too. We have no choice but to get rid of him."
I looked hard at the show's moderator, an African American, and at both my fellow panelists, also Americans. I asked them if they had anything to say to this caller. They all demurred. Afterward, I wrote to the moderator, who replied that the channel's legal department had no problem with what had just occurred on air. I called the Secret Service, to report that Press TV had just broadcast an explicit death threat against the president - only to be told they would do nothing about it.
ARTICLES
IN EBRAHIM RAISI, IRAN'S CLERICS HAVE GROOMED AND PROMOTED THEIR RUTHLESS ENFORCER
In Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's clerics have groomed and promoted their ruthless enforcer
By Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh
The Washington Post
June 25, 2021
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/06/25/ebrahim-raisi-khamenei-iran-president-supreme-leader/
This month, Iran held the most boring - and most consequential - presidential election in its history. Boring because the election was rigged virtually from the start. What made it consequential is not because the winner, Ebrahim Raisi, is a gruesome and unapologetic killer who has spent his entire career inside the regime's coercive institutions. Nor is it because Raisi is the first Iranian president to fit that description. Both former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Hassan Rouhani, the current president, were instrumental in building and using the Iranian police state. Unlike Raisi, who has had little involvement in foreign affairs, these two supposedly "pragmatic" clerics advanced operations abroad that killed Americans, Israelis and Jews around the world.
What is instead most striking about Raisi is that he has been groomed for this moment - a moment when the regime teeters on the brink of illegitimacy and needs a brutal enforcer. Raisi isn't a clever, well-read mullah, as were so many of the Islamic republic's founding fathers. But he is the quintessence of a mature Islamic Republic of Iran: He's all about compulsion sustaining a creed that ever-smaller numbers of Iranians embrace. The mullahs' hope is that Raisi is ruthless enough to overcome rising resistance to their rule.
This election, if you can even call it that, was really all about who will succeed the 82-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the rahbar, the overlord of Iran's theocracy. Khamenei has long eyed Raisi as his successor, and his promotion to the presidency presages his ultimate ascension. The theocracy's stage-managed presidential election - now utterly stripped of any democratic pretense - has deepened the legitimacy crisis that has plagued the regime since 1999, when it crushed the "Islamic left," first-generation revolutionaries who wanted to believe that the state could reform itself. With Khamenei and Raisi at the helm, or with Raisi as the supreme leader, it's not hard to envision the police state pushing a disgruntled, angry society to the breaking point.
THE RISE OF RAISI
The story of Ebrahim Raisi tracks that of modern Iran itself. He was born in 1960 to a clerical family in Mashhad, in northeast Iran, now home to 3 million people. He began his theological training in the shrine city of Qom at age 15. Qom's seminary was then the hotbed of anti-shah agitation, and many aspiring mullahs looked to the exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini for guidance and inspiration. Raisi was a member of the Haqqani Circle, a radical school of thought that produced many disciples who would go on to work in key sectors of the Islamic republic, particularly its repressive institutions.
After the improbable success of Iran's 1979 revolution, the coalition of secularists, liberals, Marxist Muslims and clerically led Islamists that displaced the Pahlavi monarchy soon collapsed, with competing factions fighting on the streets. Amid this power struggle, Khomeini (by now, returned to Iran) needed enforcers - men who had little compunction about ordering death sentences in religious tribunals. While still in his early 20s, Raisi was appointed prosecutor of Karaj, near Tehran, which saw its share of opposition activity and, after his arrival, executions by firing squad. Thus began his career on the republic's dark side.
Khomeini would often summon Raisi when he needed special missions completed with efficiency and cruelty. This led to his service on the so-called death commission in 1988, which still defines his legacy. As Khomeini approached the end of his life, he grew apprehensive about the vitality of his revolution. He feared the Islamic republic would become less religiously driven in his absence and decided to test the mettle of his disciples. In 1988, shortly after the cease-fire with Iraq, the rahbar ordered one more bloodletting. In a span of few months, thousands of leftist prisoners were executed; the exact number is unknown, but most experts say a minimum of 5,000 were killed. Raisi was one of the commission judges overseeing the slaughter. Apostasy and the denigration of Islam were the usual charges hurled at the victims in hearings that often lasted minutes.
The 1988 executions sparked a debate within the regime, just as Khomeini had intended. The supreme leader wanted to separate the true believers from the skeptics. His heir-apparent, Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, objected to the killings, and in a secret recording released in 2016, he can be heard chastising Raisi and his fellow executioners. "In my view, the biggest atrocity in the Islamic republic, for which the history will condemn us, has been committed at your hands, and in future your names will go down in history as criminals." Montazeri fell from grace and ultimately died in 2009 under house arrest. Raisi publicly defended the killings as "one of the proud achievements of the system."
Khomeini died in 1989, but his successor, Khamenei, also found Raisi a useful agent. In a succession of promotions, Raisi became the head of the General Inspection Office as well as a member of the Special Court of the Clergy, which is perhaps the most important institution in the republic: It is responsible for prosecuting troublesome mullahs.
Then came a series of harder tests: In the 1990s, the political elite fragmented over the reform movement led by President Muhammad Khatami, who called for greater harmony between religious convictions and democratic principles. Lower-level government officials and intellectuals aligned with Khatami were bolder and more explicit in their ambitions. But Raisi displayed a steady hand in battling the reformers. The judiciary and the intelligence services jailed dissidents, shuttered reformist newspapers and conducted targeted assassinations.
In 2009, the Islamic republic faced a popular insurrection. The fraudulent presidential election that returned populist, conservative firebrand Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power sparked the pro-democracy Green Movement, which, in turn, shook the foundations of the theocracy. Once more, many stalwarts of the revolution proved unsteady, including former president Rafsanjani, who was essentially purged. Not so Raisi, who as chief deputy of the judiciary remained a reliable critic of those who showed the protesters any quarter, to say nothing of the protesters themselves. "Those who have proposed the elections were fraudulent," ruled Raisi, "and created doubt in the public's mind have undoubtedly committed a grave crime and naturally will have to answer for the crime they have committed." As late as 2014, Raisi scolded his fellow conservatives for going soft on Green Movement leaders, who had remained under house arrest. "The system of the Islamic Republic has treated the leaders of sedition with kindness. ?Those who sympathize with the leaders of sedition should know that the Iranian nation will never go through this kind of oppression."
The regime learned lessons from the Green Movement. Stuffing ballot boxes provoked million-man marches on the streets of Tehran; henceforth, the theocracy would manipulate elections by narrowing the choice of candidates.
By 2016, there were unmistakable public signs that Khamenei was grooming Raisi to succeed him. When it comes to personnel, Khamenei has always displayed a keen eye for talent and loyalty. And Raisi's promotions all required the personal approval of the supreme leader.
But to rise in the Islamic republic's theocracy, Raisi needed to move beyond the regime's courts and dungeons and burnish his managerial skills. Khamenei appointed him as the head of one of Iran's largest charitable organizations, the Astan-e Qods Foundation in Mashhad, which runs the Imam Reza Shrine. The shrine is visited by millions of pilgrims a year and has an estimated $15 billion in assets. Through the foundation, the supreme leader has access to vast discretionary funds. This job gave Raisi a more benign public profile as well as the power of patronage. He also became an important player in the regime's shadowy financial empire.
Nonetheless, his public image remained flat: Raisi managed to win only 38.5 percent of the vote in his first run for office in 2017, getting trounced by the incumbent, Rouhani. As a consolation prize, he became the head of the judiciary, where he brandished his credentials as a corruption fighter, which in the Islamic republic means he became responsible for harassing those who've fallen out of favor.
In the 2021 election, Khamenei sacrificed popular legitimacy to ensure that a reliable disciple won. After the protest movements of 2017-2020, when even the poor started taking to the streets to express their anger, an elderly supreme leader likely wanted to see a version of himself in the presidency - a cleric with a proven capacity to repress and liquidate those willing to challenge the theocracy. An Iranian president doesn't have much power - the rahbar has such a large shadow government that it has shrunk the influence and perks of the presidency. Nonetheless, in troubled times, if the supreme leader were to die, having an ideologically sound and bureaucratically accomplished cleric as president would guarantee continuity.
Which helps explain why, this year, the Guardian Council disqualified a high number of presidential candidates - not only did "moderates" get axed, but even the hard-line former speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, was removed from the ballot. As a result, Raisi ran nearly uncontested, with no real competitors. He ran an uninspiring campaign, talking mostly about corruption and the need for sound management. Crisscrossing the country, he often visited prisons. The presidential debates, which sometimes spark public curiosity and social media buzz, were insipid. The handpicked candidates united in attacking Rouhani, who has become unpopular, especially within official circles where mocking him has become routine. In the end, with half the electorate staying home and approximately 3.7 million Iranians turning in blank or protest ballots, Raisi was declared the winner.
Amnesty International Secretary General Agnes Callamard called Raisi's victory "a grim reminder that impunity reigns supreme in Iran" and called for investigation of "his involvement in past and ongoing crimes under international law."
A DILEMMA FOR BIDEN
The Islamic republic was never a typical authoritarian state: Embedded in its structure are a series of elected institutions. If in previous presidential races the Guardian Council may have pruned the choice of candidates, the public got some diversity and occasionally a provocative candidate who rattled the establishment such as Ahmadinejad, or historic men of the revolution, like Rafsanjani, who outshone Khamenei. The elections may not have altered the essential demarcations of power, but they offered the Iranian people an acceptable and orderly means of expressing their grievances. The regime even tolerated some critical press.
Thus, the genius of the Islamic republic was that it offered the masses an opportunity to participate in national affairs - while being cleverly hemmed in on all sides by clerical fiat. An Iranian could cast a ballot that might actually have a small impact on his life. (Khatami's victory in 1997 for a year or two softened the surveillance of the morals police; Ahmadinejad's first triumph gave lower-class Iranians a fillip of pride and increased welfare payments.) The elected institutions of Iran may not have governed the theocracy, but they did provide an important safety valve.
Raisi's win in a fully rigged election strips the system of its off-ramps. The once-popular reformist notion that the theocracy could liberalize itself through its own constitutional provisions has died - except perhaps abroad among Western leftists. The Republic of Virtue is drowning in corruption and class divisions that are as pronounced as those in the last days of the shah. The government and the crony-capitalist class have never generated sufficient jobs. Khamenei's idea of a "resistance economy," in which Iran somehow weans itself off oil, relies on internal markets and trades heavily with China, has proved insufficient and impractical. A mismanaged pandemic has aggravated all of these problems.
The clerical oligarchs have no answers to Iran's most convulsive dilemmas. They intend to rule by brute force, in part because they have minimal hold on a public that no longer can be counted on to choose the divine path over all others. As we learned from leaked conversations of Revolutionary Guard commanders, after the pro-democracy Green Movement was crushed, the regime came to see itself as unattractive to ever larger swaths of the population. The gap between state and society has never been wider. In Raisi, a political cleric recently promoted to "ayatollah," the state has groomed, promoted and found its enforcer.
The Iranian people are hardly docile subjects. A nation that saw massive protests once a decade now sees them more frequently. In the latest nationwide revolts of 2019 and 2020, sparked by a drop in fuel subsidies, even the working classes joined the protests. Iran's ethnic minorities, who probably make up 50 percent of the country's population, have also become increasingly vocal in expressing their grievances. And the demonstrators, both Persian and non-Persian, have become explicit in their opposition to the very nature of the clerical regime. Given the violence unleashed by the security forces in 2019, Khamenei and his men obviously view these demonstrations as potential rebellions.
Raisi is an awkward, perhaps paralyzing, problem for the Biden administration's diplomatic strategy. First, there is the issue of human rights, which the White House says is a new priority for the United States. A revived Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which would release tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief, will perforce be transacted with a new president who was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in no uncertain terms in 2019: "Previously, as deputy prosecutor general of Tehran. Raisi participated in the so-called 'death commission' that ordered the extrajudicial executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988."
And then there is the substance of the nuclear deal. The talks in Vienna will likely succeed and both parties will resume their compliance with an accord whose key provisions are rapidly expiring. The White House insists that once the agreement is revived, it will seek to remedy its deficiencies with additional discussions that will extend the deal's timelines and even address Iran's malign regional activities and its ever-improving ballistic missiles. Raisi has made it clear, however, that he won't concede to any additional agreements. And Raisi isn't clever: He isn't going to argue with Khamenei about the wisdom of short-term nuclear concessions for long-term economic power. Raisi, like Khamenei, thinks first and foremost about culture and nefarious, debilitating foreign influences.
These two clerics, who will likely reinforce each other's hardest impulses, both understand what Washington appears to have missed: The era of arms-control diplomacy has ended. The Islamic republic's nuclear trajectory will not be impacted by further negotiated restraints.
In the coming months, many in Washington will assure themselves that at least this nuclear accord imposes some limits on the clerical regime's ambitions. The program, we will be assured, is back in the box even as Iran's atomic infrastructure grows in sophistication and size. The arms-controllers and proponents of accommodation will surely dust off their old talking points. The opening to China will be invoked. Strategic breakthroughs, we will be reminded, require compacts with unsavory actors. Some may even go further and argue that only a hard-liner with close ties to Khamenei can negotiate an accord.
Such postulations, however, miss the reason Raisi was elevated to the presidency. He is there to seal the system, not open it. Repression at home and imperialism abroad remain the regime's essential priorities. Such ambitions require Shiite proxy forces across the region, missile deployments and the ultimate strategic weapon. The notion of trading carrots and sticks is abhorrent to a man who abjures compromise with enemies both near and abroad.
Khamenei's and Raisi's designs will, however, make the Islamist system more vulnerable to internal unrest. Sanctions relief will provide some respite to the regime's internal problems. American arms control will pave a bit longer path to the Iranian bomb while allowing the clerical regime a much-needed financial cushion against its own imperialism and incompetence.
But whatever the Biden administration does, it won't change an irrefragable truth that bedevils the Iranian theocracy: A regime that does not address the grievances and expectations of its citizens will confront, if the past is future, increasing opposition. In the past few years, Iran has been rocked by demonstrations driven by all the social classes. The big dilemma for the Biden administration may not be the potential for arms control in the 21st century but how to deal with a mass murderer facing a mass uprising.
IRAN BETS ON RELIGION, REPRESSION AND REVOLUTION
Iran Bets on Religion, Repression and Revolution
By Bret Stephens
New York Times
June 22, 2021
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/21/opinion/iran-raisi-election.html
In the summer of 1988, Iran's supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, ordered the secret executions of thousands of political prisoners. Iran then denied reports of the slaughter, calling them "nothing but propaganda" based on "forgeries." It also ruthlessly suppressed efforts by the families of the disappeared to find out what had happened to their relatives, including the location of their burial sites.
More than 30 years later, the world still doesn't know how many prisoners were murdered, though a landmark 2017 report from Amnesty International put the minimum number at "around 5,000." Other reports suggest a figure as high as 30,000.
But one point is not seriously in doubt: Among the handful of Iranian leaders most involved in the "death commissions" was Ebrahim Raisi. At the time of the massacres, Raisi, the son of a cleric and the product of a clerical education, was deputy prosecutor general of Tehran, later rising to become Iran's chief justice. In 2018 he called the massacres "one of the proud achievements of the system."
Last week he was elected president of Iran in a rigged process in which centrist candidates were disqualified before the vote took place.
What does this mean for the world outside Iran?
One awkward question is how Western leaders should deal with a foreign leader who is currently under U.S. Treasury Department sanctions for his human-rights abuses. Progressives sometimes call for the arrest of Israeli leaders traveling abroad for alleged crimes against Palestinians. It'll be interesting to see if these same progressives have any consistency in their principles by calling for Raisi's arrest should he travel abroad, perhaps to New York for the U.N. General Assembly.
A second question is what his election means for a restored Iran nuclear deal, which the Biden administration is keen to restart after the Trump administration withdrew from it in 2018. Negotiators in Vienna have reportedly already completed the revised accord.
According to one analysis, Iran will most likely move quickly to finalize an agreement while the departing, ostensibly moderate government of Hassan Rouhani remains in office, the better for it to receive the blame for the deal's shortcomings (as Iranian hard-liners see them) while Raisi's government reaps the benefits of sanctions' relief.
That may well be, to the extent that the Kabuki theater of Iranian politics matters much on questions dictated by the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. The Kabuki extends to the deal itself, which Iran will pretend to honor and the West will pretend to verify and enforce.
The one thing it will achieve is a fleeting diplomatic victory for the Biden administration, since the Raisi government will never concede to additional demands for additional curbs on Iran's nuclear and military programs. In the meantime, billions of dollars of new money will flow to Iran's malevolent proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Gaza and Yemen.
But the important question raised by Raisi's elevation is not about the nuclear deal. It's about the kind of regime we are dealing with.
Several years ago, Henry Kissinger asked whether Iran was "a nation or a cause." If Iran's ambitions are defined by normal considerations of national security, prosperity and self-respect, then the U.S. can negotiate with it on the basis of objective self-interest, its and ours. Alternatively, if Iran's ambitions are fundamentally ideological - to spread the cause of its Islamic Revolution to every part of the Middle East and beyond - then negotiations are largely pointless. Iran will be bent on dominance and subversion, not stability.
This is why Raisi's rise matters. Although he's often described as "ultraconservative," it's more accurate to say that he's "ultrarevolutionary," in the sense that he remains the loyal and unrepentant Khomeinist he became as a young man. That makes it possible, even likely, that he will succeed Khamenei when the supreme leader, who is 82 and rumored to be suffering from prostate cancer, dies.
Those who thought that Iranian politics would ultimately move in a more moderate direction were wrong. The regime is doubling down on religion, repression and revolution.
The Biden team will make the argument that, whatever its flaws, the deal on the table in Vienna is still the best option for dealing with Iran's nuclear program, on the view that military action is unthinkable and the Trump administration's policy of maximum sanctions didn't stop Iran's uranium enrichment drive. The argument makes a certain amount of sense - at least if the true goal of U.S. policy is to find a face-saving exit from the Middle East, akin to what the 1973 Paris Peace Accords did for the U.S. and Indochina.
But if long experience in the Middle East has taught us anything, it's that the region doesn't easily leave the rest of the world alone. A less-restricted Iran means more regional mayhem. It means Arab states more likely to acquire nuclear capabilities of their own. It means a nervous Israel, more willing to take its chances. Whatever else happens in Vienna, Raisi's presidency means that the 42-year crisis with Iran is about to get worse.
HAVE WE ALREADY FAILED TO ENSURE THAT IRAN 'NEVER GETS A NUCLEAR WEAPON'?
Have we already failed to ensure that Iran 'never gets a nuclear weapon'?
By Simon Henderson, Opinion Contributor
The Hill (Washington)
June 25, 2021
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/560139-have-we-already-failed-to-ensure-that-iran-never-gets-a-nuclear
What is a nuclear weapon? The answer is both technical and political - all the more so because, on Wednesday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan met the visiting Israeli Chief of General Staff, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, and "affirmed the president's commitment to ensuring that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon."
The term "nuclear weapon" is usually used to describe atomic bombs and the much more powerful hydrogen bombs. Strictly speaking, both the first U.S. atomic bomb and the first hydrogen bomb were not capable of being delivered on a target so are often labeled as being "devices." So, is there an agreed definition of "nuclear weapon" between the U.S. and Israel, or was Sullivan being ambiguous? Would Iran be allowed to have capability, or even a device or two?
To be cynical, Iran's nuclear weapons program (few seriously judge that Tehran doesn't have one) is the slowest in world history. The transfer of centrifuge enrichment technology from Pakistan dates to at least the mid-1990s, more than 25 years ago. By contrast, Pakistan started its pursuit of enriched uranium needed for an atomic bomb in 1976, and probably achieved a workable design by 1983, having received blueprints and two bomb's worth of high enriched uranium from China a couple of years earlier in the most egregious act of proliferation so far. But Pakistan did not carry out an actual test explosion until 1998 - a 22-year time span. To my mind, the game-changer is a crude but successful nuclear test explosion in some remote corner of the Iranian desert.
Part of the delay has been due to the assumed efforts of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency, which last year is credited with blowing up the centrifuge assembly plant at Iran's main Natanz facility, and earlier this summer apparently caused a power failure at Natanz, which had a catastrophic effect on hundreds of spinning centrifuges. An incident this week at a supposed centrifuge part assembly plant outside Tehran is also being credited to Israel.
But there also has been more than the occasional smokescreen by Iran. The controversial 2007 U.S. National Intelligence Report on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities asserted that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, and as of mid-2007 had not restarted it. But in its November 2011 safeguards report on Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported: "There are also indications that some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device continued after 2003, and that some may still be ongoing."
Meanwhile, the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement that was a delaying tactic rather than a diplomatic solution, prompted Iran to break its commitments and bring into operation more efficient centrifuges, and to build up its stockpiles of semi-enriched uranium. Tehran's recent announcement that it was enriching to 60 percent of the isotope uranium-235, the actual explosive material, was a shocker. Most of the hard work of enrichment needed to achieve the magic figure of 90 percent has been done at that point.
So, one perhaps should consider the possibility - even the probability - that the U.S.-led efforts to stop Iran from becoming a quasi-nuclear power have failed. Israel's definition of that status would appear to be the ability of Tehran to enrich to 90 percent. The U.S. view instead might be for Iran to have a nuclear-tipped missile strike force. A possible midway point for some would be for Iran to have enough highly-enriched uranium for at least one test explosion, known in jargon as a "significant quantity."
We are probably running out of time for such ambiguity to continue. And there is little sign that Israel's new leader, Naftali Bennett, will take much of a different attitude on the issue from his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu. The election of President Ebrahim Raisi in Iran does not provide much comfort either. A revived JCPOA, which is being negotiated in meetings in Vienna, is beginning to look increasingly inadequate for the challenge, even if an agreement of sorts can be reached.
For the moment we have firm ambiguity, rather than anything more solid. Nuclear weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II and never have been used in anger. This template looks like it's changing.
IRAN'S PROPAGANDA OUTLETS TAKE A HIT
Iran's propaganda outlets take a hit
By David Pollock
Newslooks website
June 25, 2021
https://www.newslooks.com/irans-propaganda-outlets-take-a-hit/
U.S. website seizures are unlikely to have much direct impact on Iran's media, nuclear, or terrorist activities, but they should serve as another wake-up call about the regime's ultimate objectives and modus operandi.
*
This week, seemingly out of the blue, the U.S. government announced that it had seized the websites of several dozens of Iran's foreign media platforms, including its English-language flagship Press TV and its Arabic-language one, Al-Alam. The practical effects are minor, because Iran quickly announced that much of this is already back online, under different domain names. But the symbolic significance of this unusual move - and for me, its personal resonance as well - are well worth noting.
The official American announcement explaining this step was a bit confusing, even to experts on sanctions and related enforcement measures. What is clear is that this represents an unusual move. The U.S. has previously shut down and sanctioned media operations of designated terrorist groups or non-state militias, most notably Hezbollah's Al-Manar television. It has also recently requested some other, government-sponsored outlets, like Russia's RT or Qatar's Al-Jazeera, to register as foreign agents. Seizing official websites outright, however - even those of an adversary state with whom the U.S. has no diplomatic relations - is very rare.
Some therefore speculated that this was merely an obsolescent carryover from the Trump Administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran's regime. Others, at the opposite end of the logical spectrum, wondered if it could even be a Biden Administration effort at political cover for upcoming concessions in the Iran nuclear negotiations. A few saw a link to Iran's newly crowned president, Ebrahim Raisi, who is already under U.S. sanctions for his role in Tehran's hostile regime, or perhaps to wider current concerns about disinformation, false flag information warfare, and electoral interference. And still others, myself included, thought it might simply reflect inadequate coordination among the various federal agencies dealing with different aspects of Iranian affairs.
In any case, the impact on the nuclear negotiations, or on other important issues, appears to be negligible. A few low-level Iranian officials merely protested verbally against the U.S. action. Similarly, little has surfaced from senior American officials; the State Department referred questions about this issue to the Justice Department, which has almost nothing to add to its original terse and obscure statement.
Nevertheless, the U.S. move against Iran's leading foreign broadcasters serves as a vivid reminder of how poisonous their propaganda really is. Regardless of any nuclear deal, this and related dimensions of Iran's non-nuclear yet hardly conventional threats to the region and to U.S. interests are almost certain to continue apace. Support for terrorism, subversion, sectarian strife, civil war crimes verging on genocide in Syria and Yemen, and even the eventual destruction of Israel or Arab states allied with the U.S. are hallmarks of Iran's foreign policy. And Iran's foreign media and social media platforms are actively complicit in this campaign.
I know, because until a few years ago I was a frequent guest speaker on both Press TV and Al-Alam. I had thought to provide a small dose of reason and goodwill to offset their openly adversarial and lopsided discussion. Yet in vain, as the following two anecdotes, one from each of these two major Iranian outlets, will amply illustrate.
On Press TV, during President Obama's first year in office, I was featured on a panel about his new approach to U.S. policy in the Middle East. It was a call-in talk show, and the first caller, an American, responded to my comments as follows: "That guy is a Jew-snake. And Obama, he looks colored, but he's really a Jew too. We have no choice but to get rid of him."
I looked hard at the show's moderator, an African American, and at both my fellow panelists, also Americans. I asked them if they had anything to say to this caller. They all demurred. Afterward, I wrote to the moderator, who replied that the channel's legal department had no problem with what had just occurred on air. I called the Secret Service, to report that Press TV had just broadcast an explicit death threat against the president - only to be told they would do nothing about it. I soon stopped answering Press TV's calls.
Still, I kept appearing on Al-Alam, headquartered in Beirut but broadcasting from a rented studio at the National Press Club, right in downtown Washington, DC. My rationale was that, since I was speaking in Arabic, I might have greater credibility and possibly some positive impact with that audience. Once in a while I did get a sympathetic chuckle, as when I remarked that "Iran is indeed ready to fight for Assad's regime - to the last Arab soldier."
Eventually, though, as the enormity of Assad's atrocities and Iran's collaboration with them became increasingly apparent, Al-Alam's denials grew ever more strident and extreme. Finally, they started cutting me off in mid-sentence whenever I cited these incriminating facts. That's when I stopped answering Al-Alam's calls as well.
Which brings us back to the latest website incident, and its implications for future policy. This atypical American action will, as argued above, probably have only minimal direct impact on Iran's media "outreach," on its nuclear program, or on its material support for terrorism. To those on the receiving end, however, it should serve as one more wake-up call about the Tehran regime's ultimate objectives and modus operandi. My own very limited personal experience aside, the non-nuclear threats Iran poses to Americans, Arabs, Israelis, and others are deadly serious. No nuclear agreement can confront those threats. On the contrary, some of the resources Iran will gain from sanctions relief will no doubt once again be applied to such abhorrent propaganda, and much worse. Thus, once that agreement is revived, the U.S. and its friends and allies must become more vigilant, creative, and resolute about meeting that challenge - in both words and deeds.
* You can also find other items that are not in these dispatches if you "like" this page on Facebook www.facebook.com/TomGrossMedia
Benjamin Netanyahu, right, during his time with the Israeli army's elite Sayeret Matkal commando unit. (Photo courtesy of the IDF)
NETANYAHU'S LOSS OF POWER: "IN A WORD, IT'S PERSONAL"
[Note by Tom Gross]
I attach Bret Stephens' essay about Benjamin Netanyahu from the July/August 2021 issue of the American magazine "Commentary".
It's a good piece raising some interesting and important issues. I hesitated before sending it, worried that readers may be bored by Bibi. But, like him or loathe him, he shouldn't be written off yet - some analysts think he may well be Israel's prime minister again sooner than we think. And even if his political career is in fact over, it is worth reflecting on it (he is the most dominant figure in Israeli politics since David Ben-Gurion) and on why he alienated political allies.
As Bret Stephens writes "Netanyahu is hardly Tolstoy. Still, he's a man of formidable ambition and talent who entered the political fray looking for the harmonious universe in which a Jewish state - recognized, whole, and secure - could take its rightful place among the nations. What he found instead was that there was no straight way to get there, and perhaps no way at all, given the implacability of many of its enemies and the faithlessness of some of its friends. The two great 'solutions' are equally false. There is no plausible Palestinian state that can satisfy Israeli security requirements and Palestinian desires. There is also no map of Israel that can simply swallow the Palestinians without risking being swallowed by them in turn.
"What there is, then, is a muddled reality that must deeply disappoint idealists of every stripe. But it's also a reality that beats every conceivable alternative. Netanyahu understands this, even if it's not something he would say out loud."
FURTHER LINKS
From June 14, a panel discussion (including myself) on Turkish television: Will Naftali Bennett be a successful Israeli PM? Is Bibi's career over?
From June 8: Naftali Bennett, The Man Behind the Slogans and Stereotypes
In case you didn't see it, here are my thoughts on Netanyahu's achievements, failings and legacy, recorded on June 2, eleven days before he lost power.
You may also be interested in: "Conversations with friends: Tom Gross talks to Bret Stephens about his life"
THE PARADOXES OF BENJAMIN NETANYAHU
The Paradoxes of Benjamin Netanyahu
The fox who is also the hedgehog
By Bret Stephens
Commentary magazine
July/August 2021 issue
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/bret-stephens/benjamin-netanyahu-paradoxical-leader
I once got an unexpected, unpleasant, and altogether unforgettable phone call from Benjamin Netanyahu. This was in 2004, when Netanyahu was serving as finance minister in Ariel Sharon's government and I was editor of the Jerusalem Post. At the time, nobody thought of Israel as the dynamic "Start-up Nation" that it would later become, thanks largely to Netanyahu's policies. Instead, it was a country beset not just by waves of Palestinian suicide bombers but also by the stultifying legacies of the country's socialist roots: high taxes, inefficient state-owned companies, excessive welfare subsidies, a bloated public sector. From an economic standpoint, Israel was more likely to be compared to Argentina than, say, Switzerland.
Netanyahu knew that I was one of the few editors in Israel who fully endorsed his controversial agenda of tax cuts, privatization, deregulation, and budgetary discipline. He also knew that while the Post's influence in Israel was limited, the paper was widely read by many of the foreign investors, policymakers, financial analysts, and machers of the sort he was always keen to cultivate. But he wasn't interested in talking about his plans. Instead, he lit into me because one of the Post's opinion columnists had mentioned a notorious 1993 episode in which Netanyahu had gone on TV to confess an extramarital relationship while denouncing a blackmail attempt. "My children can now read English, you know!" he said, eliding the fact that his children could just as easily have learned of the affair on the Internet from sources in Hebrew. It took me a few minutes to realize that the point of his tirade wasn't to complain about unfair or inaccurate coverage. It was a rebuke for failing to provide compliant coverage, as if the purpose of the Post was to burnish his children's image of their father. Unlike most politicians, he wasn't interested in cultivating me as a friendly media voice. He wanted me as a patsy, and he wasn't subtle about letting me know it. In itself, this long-ago encounter with the once and future prime minister didn't mean much - although Netanyahu's habit of demanding obsequious reporting would come to haunt him after he had returned to the prime minister's chair.
Yet the story helps explain the paradox of Benjamin Netanyahu, in perhaps the most paradoxical year of his long political career. To wit, how does a man of such ambition, talent, and undeniable achievements manage so often to be so petty and self-defeating? And how can a prime minister whose recent triumphs include peace agreements with four Arab states, a series of spectacular blows to Iran's nuclear program, and a world-beating COVID-19 vaccination effort lose to the strangest coalition of political bedfellows ever assembled in Israeli - if not Western - history?
In a word, it's personal. In 1998, during Netanyahu's turbulent first term as prime minister, his father, Benzion, gave a candid interview about his second son: "He doesn't know how to develop manners that captivate people by praise or grace," he said, adding, "He doesn't always succeed in choosing the most suitable people." About the nicest thing Benzion could say of his boy was, "He may well have been more suited as foreign minister than as head of state. But at this moment I don't see anyone better." One doesn't have to play armchair psychoanalysis to observe: some father.
In fact, Benjamin Netanyahu can also be engaging and charming, at least when he's in the public eye. But there was more than a grain of truth to the father's observations. When I first arrived in Israel as editor of the Post, I paid a visit to my predecessor as editor, David Bar-Illan, the pianist and polemicist who had gone to work for Netanyahu as his press spokesman before running afoul - like so many who came before and after - of Netanyahu's feared and unpopular wife, Sara. So traumatized was David by the manner in which the Netanyahus had treated him that, after suffering a crippling heart attack, he waved off Netanyahu from a sickbed visit. Stories like this are remarkably common among those who have known Netanyahu over the years. And they go far to explain how Netanyahu's long reign as prime minister came to an end - not because he was defeated by his ideological opponents, or brought down by a legal case against him, or turned out of office following some policy fiasco. Rather, Netanyahu fell because, through a combination of high-handedness and jealousy, he allowed too many of his onetime allies and ideological fellow-travelers to become permanently embittered ex-friends.
Naftali Bennett, the new prime minister, was a Netanyahu prot?g? who served as his chief of staff from 2006 to 2008 before an angry falling out. Gideon Sa'ar, the new justice minister, was brought into the Likud by Netanyahu but fell out with him once Netanyahu began to perceive him as a credible rival for party leadership. Benny Gantz, defense minister in the new government and the last, whom Netanyahu had appointed as IDF chief of staff, was double-crossed and politically humiliated last year after he agreed to a power-sharing deal with Netanyahu - a deal Netanyahu had no intention of honoring (and, predictably, didn't). Avigdor Lieberman, the new finance minister, was an ideological soulmate and right-hand man to Netanyahu who came to despise him after he authorized private investigations and an anonymous legal hit on his family (or so Lieberman claims).
"By my code this is a sin for which there is no forgiveness, even on Yom Kippur," Lieberman said in March. "The thought that I will sit with Netanyahu is a fantasy with no chances." These four men command 28 Knesset seats between them. Together with one or both of the ultra-Orthodox parties, they would have easily given Netanyahu and his 30-seat Likud party a robust, right-of-center mandate in the last election - if only he could have won them over to his side. Yet when it came to the prime minister, the feud was personal. That they preferred to join forces with Yair Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid, Mansour Abbas's Islamist Ra'am, and the left-wingers of Labor and Meretz is a vivid demonstration that Netanyahu's powers of personal repulsion have exceeded those of ideological attraction. To know "King Bibi" up close and personal is to also to understand why he's king no longer.
Yet if we are to judge Netanyahu by his faults alone, it would be impossible to account for the fact that he is the most dominant figure in Israeli politics since David Ben-Gurion. To his inveterate critics, that's merely a function of his ability to win elections, which they attribute to his being a silver-tongued fearmonger who appeals to Israel's racist side - in effect, a Donald Trump-like figure with a better brain.
The caricature sells Netanyahu and his voters short. It also fails to comprehend the scale of his achievements in his second, 12-year tenure in office. Let's list a few.
DIPLOMACY: The crown jewels in Netanyahu's diplomatic legacy are the Abraham Accords, which effectively represent the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict (even if subsidiary conflicts, above all with Palestinians, remain). The accords did not happen by accident. They are the result of Arab admiration for Israel's economic success; respect among Arab leaders for Netanyahu's willingness to denounce the Iran nuclear pact (and, by implication, Barack Obama) in the U.S. Congress; and some canny deal-making that involved a threat to annex much of the West Bank, which was then used as a bargaining chip for diplomatic recognition. But the Accords are not Netanyahu's only diplomatic victories. He renewed or strengthened Israel's old ties with African countries - Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Chad, Nigeria - that are battleground states in the fight against Islamist terror. He developed strong personal bonds with Narendra Modi of India and Shinzo Abe of Japan. He maintained a functional relationship with Vladimir Putin, which is a vital Israeli interest whatever one thinks of the Russian dictator. He forged strategic ties with Greece, historically one of the more anti-Israel countries in Europe.
And, of course, he cultivated Trump. Many American Jews consider this a scandal, as if Netanyahu would have done better by sneering at the American president in the manner of, say, Canada's Justin Trudeau. But the payoff for Israelis of Netanyahu's courtship of the 45th president was spectacular: an American Embassy in Jerusalem, U.S. recognition of Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights, a severe downgrading of U.S. relations with the Palestinian leadership. The Biden administration has predictably reversed this policy but is unlikely to reverse course on the embassy or the Heights. This achievement, for Israel, is permanent.
SECURITY: Despite three traumatic wars with Hamas in Gaza and the harrowing "knife intifada" of 2015, Israelis have enjoyed greater security during Netanyahu's time in office than they had in the 10 years of terror and retreat between his first and second terms. The regional picture for Israel also seems to be relatively better, at least when it comes to the Sunni Arab states. And Netanyahu never made any irreversible concessions to the Palestinians, even in the face of eight years of heavy Obama-administration pressure to do so.
The reason for the relative calm has much to do with what Israeli generals call "the war between the wars," but which might also be described as the Netanyahu Doctrine. After being dissuaded in 2010 from a full-scale strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Netanyahu settled for a strategy of applying low-grade but continuous military pressure on Israel's enemies in ways that seldom invite open retaliation or create international controversy. In 2019, the IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot told me, with respect to Syria, that Israel had "struck thousands of targets without claiming responsibility or asking for credit." Jerusalem has also been instrumental in helping Cairo deal with an Islamist insurgency in Sinai, in ways that go all but unnoticed in the West but have helped solidify its security ties in the Arab world.
Then there is Iran, where Israel has conducted the most extraordinary and long-term covert-ops campaign in modern history. The Mossad's 2018 acquisition of Iran's entire nuclear archive caused the U.S. to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, and further attacks on nuclear installations and scientists continue to set back the Islamic Republic's nuclear timetable. When Iran's largest naval ship sank in early June, on the same day that a major fire broke out at a large oil refinery serving Tehran, it was difficult to imagine that pure coincidence was at play.
ECONOMY: Netanyahu was Israel's first prime minister to have a serious grasp of economics and an appreciation for business. Netanyahu also understood that there was no good reason Israel couldn't be a wealthy country - and that such wealth was a benefit to Israel's overall well-being, not a stain on its moral virtue.
When Netanyahu returned to the prime minister's office in 2009, Israel's gross domestic product (in current prices) stood at $207 billion. Ten years later, just before the pandemic, it had nearly doubled in size, to about $400 billion. By comparison, the U.K. economy grew by just 17 percent over the same time period. The average monthly wage in Israel is now nearly 50 percent higher than it was in 2009. Israel is no longer the country where, as the old saying had it, you could make a small fortune if you arrived with a large one.
As in any country, there are arguments to be made about the nature of wealth inequality and distribution, not least along class, ethnic, and religious lines. What should be inarguable is that wealth gives Israel strategic advantages it didn't previously enjoy. As one New York Times writer recently pointed out, 40 years ago, U.S. aid to Israel amounted to 10 percent of its economy, while today, at nearly $4 billion a year, it's closer to 1 percent. Wealth diminishes dependency. It also makes Israel a more attractive destination to Jews who no longer feel entirely secure in their diasporic homes, or who may simply be seeking opportunity.
PALESTINIANS: Most of Netanyahu's predecessors as prime minister had gotten the Palestinian issue wrong - some by imagining that Palestinians didn't, or shouldn't, exist as a separate people; others by believing they were the most important, if not the only, thing that mattered. Both approaches had proved disastrous.
Netanyahu understood that Israel can neither separate politically from the Palestinians safely nor coexist with them indefinitely. The right approach was one of long-term tactical management, not grandiose peace plans and "final-status" solutions.
Undergirding that view is the belief that time is, in fact, on Israel's side, for at least three reasons. First, the demographic picture is hardly as bleak for Jews as is often suggested (an idea that has ample empirical basis, at least if Israeli Jews maintain their robust birth rate while Arab birth rates continue to decline). The Cassandras of the left have been warning for decades of a ticking demographic time bomb, but, much like the notorious clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the hands never seem to reach midnight.
Second, the ideological picture also isn't as dire for Israel as widely believed - squeamish liberals, campus BDS campaigns, and rising anti-Semitism in Europe and the U.S. notwithstanding - because much of the world is moving in a more nationalist direction. That gives Israel new friends in the world, whether they are evangelical Christians in the U.S. or Hindu nationalists in India (as well as some unsavory figures like Hungary's Viktor Orban). The abiding threat of Islamism also helps Israel, insofar as Israel is broadly seen, and widely admired, for its success in fighting it.
Finally, Arab states are growing tired of the Palestinian cause, at least in its maximalist versions, and are prepared to put the issue on ice in pursuit of the goals they share with the Jewish state. The fact that one barely heard a peep of protest from Cairo, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, or other Arab capitals during the last round of fighting in Gaza suggests there is much to that belief.
*
LITTLE OF THIS goes noticed outside of Israel, thanks mainly to shoddy media coverage, monomaniacal obsession with Palestinian grievances, and what can only be described as a kind of Bibi Derangement Syndrome among his critics, many of them left-leaning American Jews. (Some of these critics are fond of insisting that their problems with Israel are all about their disdain for Netanyahu. Don't hold your breath waiting for them to moderate their views under the new coalition.)
Yet Netanyahu lasted as long as he did in his job because he was, in many ways, very good at it. After the utopian follies of the peace processers in the 1990s, the trauma of the second intifada at the start of the century, and Ehud Olmert's incompetent handling of the 2006 Lebanon War, it's easy to see the appeal (as one of his campaign ads had it) of the "Bibisitter" - the safe pair of hands who'll make sure the kids sleep well at night.
But, again, this isn't quite the whole story.
The usual rap on Netanyahu is that he's a remorseless ideologue whose only goal is "Greater Israel" and who will do whatever it takes to get it, whether it's through sly prevarication or open demagogy. An alternative view, most often held by Netanyahu's conservative critics, is that he either lacks the courage of his convictions, or just believes in little beyond himself.
"How is he better than Rabin or Peres?" the former Likud Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir railed against Netanyahu after Israel withdrew from parts of the West Bank after the 1998 Wye River agreement during Bibi's first go as prime minister. "He has a desire for power for its own sake." Several years later, as a member of Ariel Sharon's government, Netanyahu claimed to oppose Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, but kept voting in favor of its implementation. "After supporting disengagement four times" in cabinet and Knesset votes, Sharon said of his finance minister, "Bibi ran away." Naftali Bennett's own break with Netanyahu became definite after the latter's 2009 speech at Bar-Ilan University, in which he accepted the principle of a Palestinian state.
"We go along with this vision that is impractical, and then, we are surprised why the world is angry with us for not fulfilling that vision," Bennett told me in a 2015 interview. "You can't say 'I support a Palestinian state' and then not execute according to that. I think people appreciate honesty."
That last point strikes me as unfair: It's perfectly consistent to accept the idea of a Palestinian state in principle - the principle being that it should model itself on Costa Rica or the U.A.E. - while rejecting it in practice - the current reality being that it has more in common with Lebanon or Yemen as an unstable terrorist entrepot that has no interest in meeting even minimal Israeli demands for peace and security. Asking the lion to lie down with the lamb is a beautiful wish and a terrible policy.
But the deeper criticism is that Netanyahu's tenure amounts to little more than a holding action, a bravura performance in kicking cans down the road.
When I interviewed Netanyahu in 2009, just as he was about to return to office and Operation Cast Lead was winding down, he was quick to criticize the outcome. "Notwithstanding the blows to Hamas, it's still in Gaza, it's still ruling Gaza," he said. Netanyahu's "optimal outcome," he claimed, would be regime change for the Strip, but "the minimal outcome would have been to seal Gaza" from being able to acquire lethal munitions. Yet 12 years and three wars later, not much has changed, except that Hamas has gained greater international legitimacy while Israelis have grown used to spending time in their safe rooms periodically.
Something similar might be said of Netanyahu's approach to Tehran. Dazzling as Israel's intelligence and diplomatic coups have been, Iran is now enriching uranium to unprecedented levels of purity even as the Biden administration maneuvers to re-enter the nuclear deal. That goes also in the north, where thousands of Israeli air strikes have blunted Iran's power without altering the fact that Bashar al-Assad remains firmly ensconced in power in Damascus while Hezbollah maintains its firm grip in Lebanon.
In these respects, the strategic picture has not decisively changed on Netanyahu's watch, and Prime Minister Bennett will face almost exactly the same unenviable choices Netanyahu did in the early days of his tenure. There are circumstances in which buying time amounts to a form of progress, but history hasn't yet provided a verdict as to whether this was one of them.
There have also been hidden costs to this style of leadership. The essence of good policy - containment comes to mind - is that it establishes conditions in which less-than-superb leaders can be entrusted with its execution. Under Netanyahu, by contrast, the man and the policy effectively became one and the same. "Bibi-ism" isn't really a set of principles or concepts that his successors can apply or adapt. It's the view that one man, and one man only, has the wisdom, experience, and instincts to run the country.
The result has been an extraordinary personalization of Israeli politics. At least a quarter of Israelis - starting with Netanyahu himself - seem to believe that apr?s Bibi, le d?luge. That has encouraged Netanyahu and his allies to vilify their political opponents in ways that are both hysterical and potentially dangerous. Early in June, Likud lawmaker May Golan compared Bennett and Sa'ar to "suicide bombers," while Aryeh Deri, leader of the Shas party, warned that Bennett would "destroy Shabbat."
Netanyahu's political opponents, by contrast, have come to believe that Bibi is "le d?luge" and have been intent to do just about anything to destroy him. Among the many paradoxes of the last few years of Israeli politics is that the legal cases that have been ginned up against the prime minister (and which, at least by my reading, mainly suggest aggressive or sleazy political behavior, not criminal offenses) did more to encourage him to cling to his office by nearly any means necessary than they did to give him an opportunity for a graceful exit.
That's what happens when the essence of one's political program is to stay in power as long as possible, whether out of a belief in one's own indispensability or a need for legal self-preservation (or, in Netanyahu's case, both). Democracies do best when parties stand for ideas, not personalities, and when political opponents aren't viewed as mortal enemies. They also do better when leaders observe some moral boundaries, like not bidding for the support of the Kahanist party or not seeking a pardon for a soldier who murdered a Palestinian terrorist after he'd been neutralized. But that wasn't Bibi's way.
*
IN HIS OFTEN cited (if seldom read) essay "The Hedgehog and the Fox," Isaiah Berlin begins with the ancient distinction between the fox, which "knows many things," and the hedgehog, "which knows one big thing." At the Jerusalem Post, a colleague once made the point to me, during the 2002 Likud leadership contest between Ariel Sharon and Netanyahu, that the former was the hedgehog while the latter was the fox. It was another way of saying that Bibi was clever but Arik was wise. In that race, the hedgehog won.
This is one way of looking at Netanyahu. To nearly all of his bitter critics, on either side of the ideological spectrum, he is nothing but an arch-maneuverer, although they don't all agree on what he is maneuvering toward. The left sees him as a dedicated ideologue who occasionally feigns pragmatism. For the right, it's the opposite: He's a self-serving pragmatist who pretends to have an ideology. In a public career spanning nearly 40 years, it's easy to find evidence for both views. The Bar-Ilan speech that so offended Naftali Bennett is supposed to prove the first; the unwillingness to retake Gaza supposedly demonstrates the second.
Yet the point of Berlin's essay tends to be missed. In real life, as opposed to parable or literary criticism, there are at least a few people who are both hedgehog and fox, men who "looked for a harmonious universe, but everywhere found war and disorder." Berlin's great example of this type was Leo Tolstoy, whose "sense of reality was until the end too devastating to be compatible with any moral ideal which he was able to construct out of the fragments into which his intellect shivered in the world."
Netanyahu is hardly Tolstoy. Still, he's a man of formidable ambition and talent who entered the political fray looking for the harmonious universe in which a Jewish state - recognized, whole, and secure - could take its rightful place among the nations. What he found instead was that there was no straight way to get there, and perhaps no way at all, given the implacability of many of its enemies and the faithlessness of some of its friends. The two great "solutions" are equally false. There is no plausible Palestinian state that can satisfy Israeli security requirements and Palestinian desires. There is also no map of Israel that can simply swallow the Palestinians without risking being swallowed by them in turn.
What there is, then, is a muddled reality that must deeply disappoint idealists of every stripe. But it's also a reality that beats every conceivable alternative. Netanyahu understands this, even if it's not something he would say out loud. The criticism that he does nothing but kick cans down the road ignores the fact that, when it comes to Israel's major strategic challenges, at least for now, that's the only thing an Israeli prime minister can do. The question is how far the can gets kicked, and how much power and flexibility Israel can gain - militarily, economically, demographically, and so on - before it needs to kick it again. As Michael Oren, the historian and former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., has pointed out to me, Israel's entire history is one long "war of attrition" or "war between the wars." Still, it's a war that Israel can fight for the long term while its people continue to flourish.
The paradox of Benjamin Netanyahu is that a man who rose to power on the strength of a certain vision of Israel held on to power at the expense of that vision. It's that a man who did much to strengthen Israel's position in the world through the bullishness of his personality also did much to damage to Israel's politics through the same bullishness. It's that a man whose thoughts, ambitions, and actions always seemed to have the broadest sweep could become the agent of his own political undoing thanks to a succession of small grievances and petty power plays.
There's no reason to search for definitive answers anytime soon. The coalition that succeeds Netanyahu is fractious and thin, held together by little more than its loathing for a singular man. Nobody knows this better than Netanyahu himself, which is why the thought that must surely run through his head, rightly, is, "I'll be back."
* You can also find other items that are not in these dispatches if you "like" this page on Facebook www.facebook.com/TomGrossMedia
THE STRUGGLES OVER WIKIPEDIA ENTRIES
[Notes by Tom Gross]
Those, like me, who have enjoyed the novels of Isaac Bashevis Singer, may find the article below interesting, as will those who follow the political wars continuing over thousands of other Wikipedia entries.
The struggle over the Wikipedia entry on Singer ? the only Yiddish-language author to win the Nobel Prize for literature ? came to wider notice after the New York Times apparently used Wikipedia as a source on Singer in April, and removed reference to the fact he was Jewish. This has since been restored on Wikipedia.
Singer was intensely Jewish, both in his life and literature. He escaped Europe in 1935 as the Nazis introduced further antisemitic measures. His father was a Hasidic rabbi and his mother, Bathsheba, was the daughter of the rabbi of Biłgoraj, the shtetl where Singer spent part of his youth.
REMOVING JEWISH HISTORY AND VICTIMS
There are many entries on Wikipedia, including the one about Horochov (or Gorokhov), the Polish shtetl where my grandfather (Abraham Gross) was born and grew up, where almost all Jewish (and in this case also Polish) references have been removed in concerted campaigns by Ukrainian nationalists to rewrite history.
Here is the Wikipedia entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horokhiv
The parts about the Jewish (and Polish) history and the ghetto, and the references to Yad Vashem as a source, have been removed.
Horochov had a majority Jewish population for most of its history, and was 70 percent Jewish in 1940, almost all the remaining residents being Poles.
The Jews were killed en masse by the Germans and Ukrainians, and the territory was then occupied by Ukraine, the Poles were expelled, Ukrainians moved in, and towns including this one were renamed.
There were 5,000 Jews in Horochov in 1940 and only a handful survived the Holocaust, including Charlene Schiff (Shulamit Perlmutter), who hid alone aged 12-14 in the forests outside Horochov, eating wild fruits and insects.
The Washington Post ran an obituary of her here in 2013:
RENIA'S DIARY
Similarly, other east European nationalists have sought to remove or downplay Jewish history.
As Asaf Shalev notes in his article below, the dispute over the Isaac Bashevis Singer entry is not the only time Wikipedian Oliver Szydlowski (who was awarded the "Polish Barnstar of National Merit, 1st Class" by something called "WikiProject Poland") has insisted on striking "Jewish" from the first sentence of Wikipedia articles on notable Polish Jews.
In 2019, for example, he became embroiled in an argument with other Wikipedians over Renia Spiegel, a teenage Holocaust victim whose diary has been compared to that of Anne Frank. After a great deal of effort, Wikipedia overrode Szydlowski and other Polish nationalists and noted that Spiegel, who was executed because she was Jewish in the Przemyśl ghetto at the age of 18, on July 30, 1942, was Jewish.
FABRICATING CHRISTIAN* VICTIMS OF GAS CHAMBERS
In 2019, I posted this dispatch (Poland's fabricated death camp: Wikipedia's longest hoax, exposed), which includes a photo of a church memorial plaque commemorating "200,000 Polish Christian victims" who Polish ultra-nationalists wrongly claim were gassed to death in an "extermination camp" in Warsaw that never actually existed. They made-up entries and references on Wikipedia about it.
It's an invented camp, "it's fake history," part of a Polish nationalist campaign to try and distort the Holocaust and pretend Jews were not its overwhelmingly central victims, Prof. Havi Dreifuss, a leading Holocaust expert at Yad Vashem said.
As I noted in my 2019 dispatch:
It is only one part of a systematic effort by Polish nationalists to whitewash hundreds of Wikipedia articles relating to Poland and the Holocaust and parrots the revised historical narrative currently being enacted by the Polish government to cover up Polish cooperation and collaboration with the Nazi murder of Jews.
Among Wikipedia entries in Polish that have been rewritten to pretend the Germans rather than Poles were responsible for mass murders of Jewish civilians, are the July 1941 pogroms at Radzilow (where Poles rounded up hundreds of their Jewish neighbors, barricaded them in a barn and set it on fire) and the Polish massacre of Jews at Jedwabne.
In 2009, WikiLeaks (which is not connected to Wikipedia) released a batch of emails revealing the existence of a group of Wikipedia editors from Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland, that were coordinating their actions and working together to skew content there to push a nationalistic line with fake history.
(* The vast majority of the victims of Nazi gas chambers were Jewish, but some were Christians. For example, some among the 19,000 Roma who were killed in gas chambers at Auschwitz, were Christian. Soviet prisoners of war and others were murdered by the Nazis en masse, but not generally in gas chambers.)
ARTICLE
THE NEW YORK TIMES CALLED ISAAC BASHEVIS SINGER A POLISH WRITER. HERE'S HOW WIKIPEDIA WARRIORS MADE HIM JEWISH AGAIN.
The New York Times called Isaac Bashevis Singer a Polish writer. Here's how Wikipedia warriors made him Jewish again.
By Asaf Shalev
JTA
June 4, 2021
https://www.jta.org/2021/06/04/culture/the-new-york-times-called-isaac-bashevis-singer-a-polish-writer-heres-how-wikipedia-warriors-made-him-jewish-again
Few things rile an online crowd like a mistake in The New York Times. One example is the Twitter account of a contemptuous troll dedicated to pointing out typos and grammar mistakes in the paper of record.
But there's another category of error ? the botching of a fraught historical detail ? that elicits a special shock and insult.
In April, novelist Sigrid Nunez, writing an essay about unexpected bonds between strangers in the Times' style magazine, was found to have committed such a violation. She described, in passing, Isaac Bashevis Singer as a "Polish-American author."
The various reactions featured words like "yikes," "obscene," "disgusting," aghast" and "shanda."
"Shame on @NYTIMES for erasing his identity and heritage," one Twitter user wrote.
It may be true that the Nobel laureate was born and raised in Poland, but Singer is, in fact, best described as a Jewish author, and any labeling that elevates the former while ignoring the latter will strike many Jews as tone-deaf at best. This sensitivity is understandable given that Singer's hyphenated identities are the result of his immigration to the United States only a few years before the near annihilation of Polish Jewry.
Since Nunez surely didn't mean to bring about a crime against history, the question is where did she pick up the wording that appeared in The Times?
The likely answer is quite obvious: Wikipedia.
At the time, the introduction to the Wikipedia entry on Singer described him as a "Polish American writer in Yiddish." The word "Jewish" appeared lower, in the body of the text.
Check now and you'll see a different first line: Singer is "a Polish-born Jewish-American writer." But the process of editing these few words was long and complicated, offering lessons on the pitfalls and continued promise of decentralized knowledge in the era of disinformation, with some possible insights about Polish ultranationalism.
The story of how a set of Wikipedia warriors made Isaac Bashevis Singer Jewish again starts a few years ago with a keyboard battle between two strong-willed strangers on the internet.
On one side: Wikipedia novice David Stromberg, 40, an Israel-born, U.S.-raised literary scholar and writer who lives in Jerusalem and whose research on Singer appears in academic journals.
"I've been in this battle since 2019, have gotten really obsessed with it," he told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency. "You ask yourself, 'how could this be happening?'"
On the other side: seasoned Wikipedian Oliver Szydlowski, 22, a Polish college student enrolled in a construction management program at the Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, Australia.
"Wikipedia is a battleground, and you do tend to argue with a lot of people," Szydlowski told JTA. "What I'm trying to do is to improve every single article as much as possible."
At first, Stromberg found himself consulting the Wikipedia page on Singer for work. He's a serious Singer scholar, but the page provided a quick and easy reference for certain details, like the listing of Singer's published works.
There were little mistakes in dates and titles, and Stromberg fixed them as he went along. Then one day, he noticed Singer was identified as a "Polish American," so he fixed that, too.
"And within like an hour it was back," Stromberg recalled. "So I went and changed it again. And again it was back."
Stromberg navigated to the backend of the page and searched for who was making the changes. It was a user that went by the Polish-sounding "Oliszydlowski." A user page for Oliszydlowski seemed to hint at the motivation of Stromberg's adversary. The page showed that Oliszydlowski was awarded the Polish Barnstar of National Merit, 1st Class by something called WikiProject Poland for having created an article on Polonophilia, which means fondness for Polish culture and history.
To Stromberg, Szydlowski's Wikipedia profile suggested that he might belong to the movement of Polish ultranationalists who have been fighting to improve the world's perception of Poland's 20th-century history. The sanitized narrative advanced by this movement is that the Polish people bear no responsibility for the Holocaust and were themselves victims of the Nazis.
As the back-and-forth over the Singer article continued, Szydlowski's track record as an editor and knowledge of the Wikipedia rules allowed him to trump Stromberg's corrections. The Wikipedia administrators who got involved sided with Szydlowski.
Eventually Stromberg's account was blocked. He had picked the username IBSLiteraryTrust, after the Isaac Bashevis Singer Literary Trust, which he represents. It was a bad choice ? Wikipedia frowns on anything that looks like promotional activity by a business or organization.
Stromberg occasionally felt silly about continuing to fight and thought of letting the error stand, hoping that internet users would know better than to trust Wikipedia. But he also knew that Wikipedia is widely read and worried that the idea of Singer being a Polish American could enter the wider culture ? the kind of scenario that eventually happened with the phrase's appearance in The Times.
So Stromberg fought on. He pleaded to have his account unblocked.
"I have been put here in order to stop a clarification that is scholarly in nature and has nothing to do with promotion or sales," Stromberg wrote as part of a Wikipedia grievance process in November. "User Oliszydlowski is constantly undermining these changes and using all kinds of Wikipedia tricks to block my access. Please help!!"
Oliszydlowski, meanwhile, chimed in to say he merely hoped to enforce Wikipedia's rules. According to his understanding, the descriptor "Jewish" didn't belong in the lead sentence. Only a person's nationality ? rather than religion or ethnicity ? is allowed in the lead, and Jewish is not a nationality, he argued.
Stromberg countered by giving the example of articles on important figures whose lead sentence did say "Jewish," like Walter Benjamin, Martin Buber and Shalom Shabazi. And he added that according to Wikipedia itself, Jewish can, in fact, be considered a nationality.
"The Wikipedia entry on 'Jewish' clearly frames being Jewish as an ethnoreligious group and a nation, and states that 'Jewish ethnicity, nationhood, and religion are strongly interrelated,'" Stromberg wrote.
Oliszydlowski's repeated rejections, Stromberg wrote, suggested "national belligerence."
Nothing worked. Stromberg kept posting the wrong answers from the wrong accounts at the wrong moments and was rebuffed each time. He decided to give up.
"The administrators on Wikipedia were not interested in upholding what might be factual information," Stromberg said in a recent interview. "Their main concern was that people should play by their rules. To me, that kind of game is not a game worth playing."
Then he reconsidered.
"It's not a game worth playing alone," he said.
In the 20 years since it was launched, Wikipedia has proven remarkably resilient. Run by a nonprofit and edited by anyone with an internet connection who would like to volunteer, the site turned out to be reliable in defiance of its early critics while standing as the only noncommercial entity among the most popular websites on the internet. Wikipedia has become a part of the digital infrastructure.
Corporate propaganda and political agendas always made the job of Wikipedia difficult, but with the rise of state-sponsored, social media-powered disinformation, the Wikipedia community has struggled to fend off rogue editors and bad-faith revisions. When fighting breaks out in Gaza, for example, mobs wage war over related Wikipedia pages and administrators are forced to freeze editing. Meanwhile, the entry for the Second Intifada, which ended more than 15 years ago, is still being litigated.
The battle over Singer's identity didn't erupt in quite that way, but a small crowd did coalesce after the article in The Times was published. Stromberg recruited help through Facebook; others came from Twitter. Someone would edit the first line to add the word Jewish, and Oliszydlowski would immediately undo it, adding comments that grew increasingly impatient and acerbic ? for example: "Disruptive vandalism" and "No such nationality as Jewish. How hard is that to comprehend[?]"
An Israeli Wikipedia administrator named Amir Aharoni joined the challengers as the matter went into a dispute resolution process.
Aharoni wanted the word "Jewish" added "somewhere, anywhere, in the first, all-important sentence" of the Singer article, but with his more than 15 years of experience editing Wikipedia ? and sorting through countless such disputes as an administrator ? Aharoni also felt a responsibility to keep the debate civil.
"With sensitive things like the nationality of famous people, and especially Jews, of course, it's better to be careful and not fight with other editors," Aharoni told JTA.
(Aharoni, who is an employee of the site's operator, the Wikimedia Foundation, said he edits Wikipedia as a volunteer, and that the two functions are independent of each other.)
Rather than argue against Singer's Polishness, Aharoni emphasized his Jewishness by citing sources like newspaper accounts and the Nobel Committee's summary of Singer's accomplishment.
To Oliszydlowski's point that ethnicity and religion don't belong in the first line, Aharoni noted the Wikipedia Manual of Style, which says that ethnicity and religion do belong if they are "relevant to the subject's notability."
The final decision, based on a consensus, excluding Oliszydlowski, was to identify Singer in his entry's first sentence as Jewish, not Polish.
"There was a bit of an argument," Aharoni said, "but it was small compared to many other arguments that happen in Wikipedia."
A few weeks later, Szydlowski agreed to an interview with JTA. He didn't sound exactly like the Polish propagandist that Stromberg suspected him of being.
Logging in from Australia, where he is finishing up a bachelor's degree in construction management and urban development, Szydlowski said he still thinks it's correct to refer to Singer as a Pole but has accepted the community's decision.
"Me, personally, I don't really have an opinion," he said. "If they concluded that he should be described as this or that does not matter just as long as it's correct within the Wikipedia guidelines. Really, I'm very neutral in this perspective in this dispute. I'm satisfied now that it has actually been discussed."
His argument was that Singer was not only Polish by nationality but that the country played a significant role in his life and career. Singer left Poland when he was in his 30s, Szydlowski noted, having already begun his career as a writer. And the literature he produced examined not just any Jews but Jews in Poland.
Szydlowski doesn't deny Singer's Jewishness and, in fact, is something of a Judeophile. He talked about the richness of prewar Ashkenazi culture in Europe and recited statistics on the historical size of the Jewish population of different cities. His user profile says he has Ashkenazi heritage. Asked about that, Szydlowski shared that his great-grandfather was Jewish and survived the war by concealing his identity.
"I love researching Jewish topics, and I love comparing what Polish and Ashkenazi Jewish cultures were like because the mutual influence was unbelievable," Szydlowski said.
The Singer dispute is not the only time Szydlowski has insisted on striking "Jewish" from the first sentence of Wikipedia articles on notable Polish Jews. In 2019, for example, he became embroiled in an argument with other Wikipedians over Renia Spiegel, a Holocaust victim whose diary has been compared to that of Anne Frank.
The nerdy-scholastic confidence of Szydlowski appears to have been shaped by years as a volunteer on Wikipedia. Starting as a young teenager, he admittedly had "no knowledge, no experience" and focused on fixing typos and grammatical errors or adding references.
Szydlowski eventually became involved in a group known as WikiProject Poland, one of more than 2,000 such collaborations on English Wikipedia alone. Each country has its own WikiProject with the goal to create standard language, improve the quality of related articles and generate new content. The 170 or so members of the Poland team help maintain tens of thousands of articles.
"It's very difficult to say why I do it," Szydlowski said. "I really enjoy it. I enjoy writing about history and reading about it."
Asked about Stromberg's suspicion that he's a Polish nationalist harboring a certain agenda, Szydlowski denied the assertion. He said that as an editor his job is to enforce Wikipedia's rule against personal points of view, which includes nationalism.
"I understand where [Stromberg is] coming from because there is a lot of nationalism on Wikipedia," Szydlowski said. "It is a battleground, but what he's saying ? no, it's not true."
Stromberg said that Szydlowski's denial belies the record of his actions ? his insistence and persistence up until the point that other Wikipedians got involved and an arbitration mechanism was imposed.
"What's a college student in Australia doing working overtime on the WikiProject Poland?" Stromberg asked. "Would a troll reveal that he's a troll?"
* You can also find other items that are not in these dispatches if you ?like? this page on Facebook www.facebook.com/TomGrossMedia
Above: a post from Imam Mohamad Tawhidi, the Iranian-born Shia reformist Imam who has lived in Australia since 2015. There are an increasing number of Arabs and Muslims who are sympathetic to Israel. (Several of them subscribe to this list.) Of course, anti-Israel media such as the BBC and New York Times will not give them a voice -- Tom Gross
Above: Israeli Prime Minister-designate Naftali Bennett, who is due to be sworn into office on Sunday, with senior British Cabinet Minister Michael Gove (center) and, on the left, Tom Gross, at one of their past meetings. Bennett, who represent a small party with only six Knesset seats will lead an 8-party coalition comprising secular and religious Jews and Muslims, and parties of both left and right. Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, which at 30 seats is easily the biggest party in the Knesset, will go into opposition.
I have met Bennett on a number of occasions. He has occasionally shared my posts or TV interviews. For example, here on his Facebook page in 2014 which garnered 234,000 views.
In case you didn't see it, here is my conversation with Haviv Retting Gur (of the Times of Israel) on the subject of Benjamin Netanyahu's achievements, failings and legacy. For all his faults Netanyahu has turned Israel into a global power, and greatly increased Israel's strategic and economic standing. -- Tom Gross
ARTICLE
NAFTALI BENNETT, NEXT ISRAELI PM: THE MAN BEHIND THE SLOGANS AND STEREOTYPES
Naftali Bennett, Next Israeli PM: The Man Behind the Slogans and Stereotypes
Bennett, a leader of a small party running the show is a bizarre occurrence that won't repeat. But the former Israeli startup executive can be remembered as the person who ended the Netanyahu era and helped usher in political stability
By Anshel Pfeffer
Haaretz
Jun. 6, 2021
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-naftali-bennett-next-israeli-pm-the-man-behind-the-slogans-and-stereotypes-1.9864203
Naftali Bennett, who is on track to become Israel's 13th prime minister within days, is easily labeled ? religious hard-liner, ultranationalist and settler leader on the one hand, high-tech millionaire, special-forces operative and political wunderkind on the other. Most of these labels, on closer scrutiny, don't really apply. At least not fully.
Bennett at 49 is the man who has come closest to the holy grail of Israeli politics, replacing Benjamin Netanyahu, but he's not really a politician, certainly not a consistent one. In the last 14 years he has been in five different parties. He entered the Knesset for the first time just eight years ago, and just two years ago one of his parties even failed to cross the electoral threshold. Now he's about to become prime minister and Bennett's current party, Yamina, is falling apart with half its members having either defected or considering it.
In interviews he likes to present himself as not being like other politicians "who never ran a business" ? instead, he's a tech executive and a commando, "an expert in hunting down rocket launchers behind enemy lines." But the sum of his years in the military and business is even shorter than his stint in politics. Those who know him well predict that in a few years he'll be doing something else.
The same goes for his personal background. He wears a tiny kippa, improbably perching on his bald head with the help of two-sided tape, but that doesn't define him. Or his family. He has American parents and spent part of his early childhood in New York and Montreal, but he's at most an ambivalent "Anglo." As a self-professed fanatic of the Greater Land of Israel, he has never shown much interest in living in the West Bank and built a house in the placid upscale Tel Aviv suburb of Ra'anana.
In a visit to the Chabad center in Haifa five years ago, Bennett described how his parents, who emigrated from San Francisco in 1967 following the Six-Day War, began keeping kosher and observing Shabbat because of him. Naftali was born in Haifa in 1972 and when he was 3, the family moved to Canada, where his father, Jim, worked as a fundraiser for the Haifa-based Technion technology institute. The toddler was placed in a Chabad kindergarten so he could keep up his Hebrew.
"I came home a dos, with a kippa and tzitzit" is how he tells the story, using the Israeli slang for a religious person and referring to the fringes that protrude from a religious man's undershirt. "And I asked my father why he didn't have a kippa and tzitzit of his own, and we slowly began observing more, going to synagogue, keeping kashrut."
But this was more likely part of a wider spiritual process his secular parents were undergoing that led to their emigration to Israel and their gradual observance, which was never especially stringent. This process was accompanied by their political journey from students who protested against the Vietnam War to right-wingers who protested against the Oslo Accords in the 1990s and Israel's pullout from Gaza in 2005. Of Jim and Myrna's three sons, Naftali would be the one to spend years without a kippa and marry a secular woman.
So how religious is Israel's "first religious prime minister"? And does it even matter?
By all accounts, he's what is known in today's Israel as dati lite, religious lite, not a regular synagogue-goer and not the kind of person who can tell you what the weekly Torah portion or Hebrew date is. His high school, Haifa's Yavneh school, may have been called a yeshiva but he didn't graduate with much of a taste for the Talmud.
He entered the Knesset as the leader of the Habayit Hayehudi party, which means "Jewish home," the rebranded venerable National Religious Party. But he immediately went about trying to fill his team with secular politicians and visibly chafed whenever he had to meet with rabbis for "guidance." When he meets voters, unlike other religious politicians, he will rarely have any wisdom from the Torah to dish out, but will regale them with stories from his time in the army or business.
So what kind of a religious Israeli is he? Probably a Bnei Akiva youth movement kind, though not the austere Bnei Akiva of today, with its gender segregation and emphasis on observance. Bennett's Bnei Akiva back in 1980s Haifa was about dancing and hiking and the counselors' talks on patriotism and service.
"YONI'S LETTERS"
Bnei Akiva was also where Bennett first heard the name Netanyahu, though it was Bibi's older brother, Yoni. At Bnei Akiva, Bennett would have repeatedly seen a film on the special forces' legendary hostage rescue at Uganda's Entebbe Airport in 1976; Yoni is killed at the end. "Yoni's Letters," the book of letters that Yoni wrote as a teenager forced to move with his parents to Philadelphia, and later as a commando in the Israel Defense Forces, were a staple of Bnei Akiva talks.
Yoni wrote about the higher purpose of serving one's country, as opposed to the boys in Philadelphia, who "are so poor in substance" and only "talk about cars and girls." "Yoni's Letters" is a lot less popular in today's more cynical and materialistic Israel, but it was the teenage Bennett's Bible, so at 18 he volunteered for the Sayeret Matkal commando unit that Yoni had led at Entebbe. For years, Bennett had prepared himself physically for the demands of Israel's most elite special forces unit.
FACE-TO-FACE WITH HEZBOLLAH
At the time, 1990, the IDF's top units weren't yet filled with the graduates of religious schools. Bennett didn't enjoy being seen as "one of the dosim," and a year and a half later when he was sent for officer training, he was no longer wearing his kippa and was enjoying a much more secular lifestyle when on leave.
Bennett's six years in the military satisfied his craving for danger and adventure. Sayeret Matkal taught him to operate in a small team behind enemy lines, but as a young soldier he saw little action, and when he became an officer he faced a dilemma. He could go back to Matkal and take part in "core missions" ? but as an operator, not a commander ? or move to a slightly less elite unit in order to receive a command.
He chose the latter and swiftly became a team leader and then a company commander in the Maglan unit, but the fact that some of his contemporaries returned to Matkal to command teams of their own (as had the Netanyahu brothers Yoni and Bibi) would leave him with a feeling of inadequacy even beyond his military career. He was by all accounts a capable and creative commander, popular with his men despite often pushing them beyond their physical limits, but an occasional nuisance to his senior officers, who didn't always appreciate it when he argued with their orders.
Ultimately he chose to leave the service, though he could have continued. He had already made the decision when he became involved in an incident with international implications. In April 1996, Israel bombarded southern Lebanon for 17 days in Operation Grapes of Wrath, an attempt to get Hezbollah to stop firing on northern Israel and on IDF forces in Israel's self-declared security zone in southern Lebanon.
Bennett led a company in a night raid on Hezbollah positions, until on the eighth day of the mission the soldiers came under mortar fire. Bennett called for artillery support, which rained down on the mortar team's position, near a UN compound where hundreds of Lebanese civilians were taking shelter. One hundred and six people were killed and international condemnations forced Israel to end Operation Grapes of Wrath earlier than planned, without realizing its objectives.
Bennett wasn't responsible for the targeting of the shells, but years later he justified the artillery fire. "Hezbollah was firing from schools and hospitals," he said, adding that the covering fire "saved our lives."
He only found out about the disaster hours later, after helicopters flew the commandos back to Israel. Still, years later, anonymous senior officers said his alleged panicking under fire led to an over-hasty artillery response, adding to his feeling that his military genius was underappreciated and that the IDF's high command suffers from mediocrity. Either way, it was time to get out.
Bennett loves to talk about his army days and did many stints as a reservist. But he's also easily riled when his short military career comes up and has trouble facing the fact that in Israel hundreds of men have more impressive operational records. Still, the experience would help him in his next career.
After his discharge, Bennett spent three years as a rather indifferent law and business student at Hebrew University. He still preferred to spend his time lecturing to young people about service, and that's how he met his wife, Gilat, speaking to high school students at the battle site on Jerusalem's Ammunition Hill. She was a soldier in the IDF Education and Youth Corps, five years younger.
The fact that Naftali and Gilat moved in together before their marriage is another sign of his laid-back religiosity. After their wedding in 1999, they moved to the settlement of Bet Arye. But Bennett only lived across the Green Line for a few months. He was more interested in making money than settling the hilltops, and as CEO of Cyota, a startup specializing in online banking security software, he needed to move to a major financial center.
The Bennetts would spend the next four years in New York; he pursued investors and customers for Cyota, she worked as a pastry chef in Manhattan restaurants.
Just as with his military career, Bennett has spent much more time talking than doing. Of Cyota's four Israeli founders, only one had tech know-how and none had any real business experience. But that wasn't so unusual for Israeli entrepreneurs at the height of the dotcom bubble. And what Bennett lacked in scientific expertise, he made up elsewhere.
As CEO, Bennett brought to his job the same determination he had as an officer, and this time he would remind his partners, "What can happen? Nobody is going to get killed. Nobody is going to step on a mine."
As the initial investment dwindled and they were forced to cut staff, they even began looking for loans from relatives. Their eventual success owed nearly as much to Bennett's perseverance and confident charm as the main salesman ? and their product was a big success in helping banks curb online fraud. It was that confidence that got Cyota sold for $145 million to RSA Security in 2005, before it ever turned a profit, making Bennett a millionaire at 33.
That's also when Bennett began to lose interest in his new career. He stayed on a few months after the sale and had offers to join other companies and investment funds. He would make a few brief forays in tech, including at least two more startup investments that would net him more millions, but he had already achieved the elusive startup exit dream. More money wasn't enough of a temptation; he had enough to go back to Israel, build a house and have children with Gilat.
Bennett was always engaged with politics and there was no question as to where he stood on Israel's political spectrum. By his teenage years, his parents had completed their own personal journey to the far right, which opposed any compromise on territory. Bennett himself was active in the youth wing of the Tehiya party, which had been founded in 1979 to the right of Likud and protested Menachem Begin's willingness to return all of Sinai to Egypt for peace.
One leader of the youth wing was Gideon Sa'ar, whom Bennett would meet 20 years later as an upcoming Likud politician and now a partner in the nascent governing coalition as leader of the New Hope party. But Bennett missed the two great struggles of the Israeli right ? he was in the army during the protest wave against the Oslo Accords in the early and mid-'90s, and in the United States with Cyota during the fight against the Gaza disengagement in 2005.
Despite his ideological fervor, he only decided to go into politics at 35, after having enough of business and experiencing yet more frustration in the IDF as a reserve commander during the failed Second Lebanon War of 2006.
It was a nadir for the right wing, especially Likud. Ariel Sharon, architect of the disengagement, and other Likud leaders split with the party at the end of 2005 and formed the centrist Kadima with senior Laborites including Shimon Peres. Sharon soon had two strokes and slipped into an eight-year coma, but Kadima, under the accidental leadership of Ehud Olmert, still managed to trounce Likud in the 2006 election.
Likud won only 12 Knesset seats under Netanyahu, who had finally returned as party leader ? six years after he resigned following the end of his first term as prime minister and his election defeat to Labor's Ehud Barak. Many predicted that Likud would never return to power; certainly its leader's career would never recover.
At the time, Netanyahu was synonymous with defeat; plenty of Likudniks were out to replace him. Then came the Olmert government's disastrous handling of the Lebanon war, which is also when Bennett arrived.
MEDIOCRE BENNETT
On the face of it, for a man who entered politics as the opposition leader's chief of staff less than 15 years ago, and now is about to become prime minister, Bennett has enjoyed a meteoric rise. But a closer look shows a much more erratic path.
He lasted barely a year and a half in Netanyahu's office before falling out first with Netanyahu's circle of old loyal advisers, then with Bibi's wife and finally with the boss himself. He was fired from his next political job, as CEO of the settlers' Yesha Council after an even shorter stint, when the council's veterans tired of his media stunts and rebranding exercises.
The last straw was his decision to join, as Yesha CEO, the left-wing social justice protests in Tel Aviv in the summer of 2011. Bennett claimed that he wanted to broaden the settlers' engagement with other parts of Israeli society. His critics felt he was building his own personal brand.
After losing that job, Bennett's next political adventure was to found a new party, The Israelis, which lasted a month, before he decided to take over an existing party. In fact, Bennett has been involved in five parties over the past 15 years.
He joined Likud in 2007 in the belief that his new job with Netanyahu would get him into the Knesset in the next election. But by the time this came around in 2009, he had already been banished, and Netanyahu made it back to power without Bennett.
Bennett abandoned his plans for a new party when he realized there was an easier way of getting into the Knesset. The old National Religious Party had fallen on bad times, as younger religious Zionist voters preferred either more radical parties or simply didn't feel the need to vote for a religious party. Like Bennett, their religion wasn't important enough to dictate their politics. He of course had never voted for the party, but it was about to hold its first primary in the hope of attracting new members, and Bennett joined up. The old guard didn't have a chance and Bennett romped to victory with two-thirds of the vote.
His six years as leader of Habayit Hayehudi was the longest time Bennett spent in any job. It was also one of his least favorite. He chafed at the need to consult with the rabbis and party functionaries, and was blocked when he wanted to bring in attractive new secular candidates, most humiliatingly when he was forced to backtrack on former Beitar Jerusalem striker and Mizrahi icon Eli Ohana joining Habayit Hayehudi's party slate.
Most of all he hated how the other leaders of the party and its rabbis accepted that Habayit Hayehudi would always play second fiddle to Likud and Netanyahu, rather than challenge for the national leadership. Which is why Bennett finally broke with Habayit Hayehudi in 2018, forming his fourth party, New Right, which only brought him more humiliation and nearly the end of his political career when the new team failed, by 1,400 votes, to cross the electoral threshold. This left him out of the Knesset, but thanks to Netanyahu's failure to form a coalition, Bennett was back a few months later, this time with his latest party, Yamina, which means rightward.
Yamina has hardly won resounding success, but its mere seven seats have given Bennett the leverage to demand the prime minister's job in return for joining the coalition to replace Netanyahu.
Bennett's flitting between fringe parties doesn't give us much of an indication of what kind of a prime minister he would be, and neither do his ministerial roles. He failed to leave much of a mark as economics minister for two years. Its bureaucratic nature bored him. He was much more excited to be a member of the security cabinet, finally having a say on military and security affairs, and demanding that he receive personal intelligence briefings.
The next three and a half years as education minister were more rewarding; he led reforms that improved the teaching of math and reduced crowding in classrooms. But he also picked silly culture-war fights, one in which he dropped from the curriculum Dorit Rabinyan's novel on a relationship between a Jewish woman and a Palestinian man. Bennett also forbade high schools to host lectures by the former soldiers in Breaking the Silence.
But despite the Education Ministry's high profile, his heart wasn't in it. Netanyahu promised him the Defense Ministry before the 2015 election, but that was another broken promise. Bennett got Defense finally in late 2019, but only because Netanyahu was desperate to prevent a governing coalition led by Kahol Lavan leader Benny Gantz. Six months later, Gantz replaced Bennett anyway.
Bennett's hard-line right-wing posturing and his racist statements on having "killed many Arabs" in his army days haven't amounted to much in terms of policy. His grandiose Stability Initiative from 2012 includes the annexation of Area C in the West Bank (giving the 80,000 Palestinians there full Israeli citizenship), but it has never been a real priority for him. Officially he still supports annexation, but he has never tried to make it government policy.
As a minister under Netanyahu he admitted: "I'm in a great position, always a bit to the right of Bibi. Whenever I make a statement on security or diplomatic matters, he has to match me."
People who have worked closely with him insist he's actually much more moderate and the hard-right statements are largely electioneering to differentiate himself from Netanyahu. "Just wait until Netanyahu goes and there's a bit more space," one of them once said. "Naftali will become much more moderate and try to appeal to centrist voters."
He tried to do that during the pandemic when he scolded other right-wingers for trying to push their agendas. "Not corona, not important," became his slogan.
If he becomes prime minister, he will be in office with the support of Labor, left-wing Meretz and the United Arab List. His right-wing ideology, such as it is, isn't his prime motivator. So what is?
JUST WANTING TO BE LOVED
In his most recent interview with Channel 12's Amit Segal, after the coalition agreements were signed, Bennett squirmed and made excuses for breaking his key election promises ? to prioritize a right-wing coalition, not to serve in a government with Meretz or the United Arab List, and not to agree to Yair Lapid becoming prime minister. There were a couple of authentic moments, though.
"I told my kids that their father is going to make a move that will make him the most hated man in Israel," he dolefully told Segal. "But I'm doing it for my country."
That hardly makes sense. Most Israelis want to see Netanyahu replaced, and Bennett knows those numbers. Still, the angry protests outside his home and those of other Yamina legislators, and Netanyahu's accusations that he has carried out the "fraud of the century" have the power to make him feel hated.
Bennett wants to be prime minister and still seeks to emulate Netanyahu, but unlike Netanyahu, who wants to be admired and feared, Bennett really just wants to be loved.
Which is why he's still yearning for Netanyahu's approval, despite the constant abuse, the mocking in public and the vicious secret smearing of him and his family by Bibi and Sara in the compliant media. He kept on coming back in the hope that one day Netanyahu would recognize him as the prodigal son. It took Netanyahu's shambolic managing of the COVID-19 crisis (until the vaccines arrived) for Bennett to finally realize that his idol, for all his grand statesmanship and rhetorical brilliance, is actually a lousy manager.
And as Bennett said Sunday night, when he finally burned his bridges, Netanyahu is prepared "to take the entire State of Israel to his personal Masada."
But if he can't have Netanyahu's affirmation, he needs it from others around him ? from Ayelet Shaked, who first brought him to work with Netanyahu and then suffered the same abuse as Bennett in the Byzantine court, including baseless innuendo of their having an affair. For all his bravado, Bennett still needs Shaked, who escaped with him from jobs in Netanyahu's office and remained with him throughout his political wanderings.
Thus in the last days of the coalition talks he stood aside while Shaked nearly wrecked the deal over her demand for a seat on the Judicial Appointments Committee. He needs her in this government and her demands will be met.
And it's why Bennett is so anxious to tell everyone that Lapid has been such a mensch throughout the negotiations, so honest and fair-minded. He needs it to be true. He needs to resurrect the "pact of brothers" he had back in 2013 with Lapid, when the two new party leaders demanded that Netanyahu take both of them into his coalition, or they would both stay out. But this time it's not to force Netanyahu's hand. Netanyahu is gone, as far as Bennett is concerned. It's so Bennett can be surrounded by love and support.
ISRAEL 3.0
The 11 men and one woman who have served as Israeli prime minister can be categorized in different ways. Seven (Ben-Gurion, Sharett, Eshkol, Meir, Rabin, Peres, Barak) came from the Labor movement, four were Likudniks (Begin, Shamir, Sharon, Netanyahu), and Ehud Olmert, who most of his career was in Likud, became prime minister as a member of the short-lived Kadima party. In one sense, Bennett is like Olmert, representing neither of the two historical parties of the Zionist movement and coming to office under freak circumstances.
Meanwhile, nine of the prime ministers belonged to the "founders' generation," whether as leaders of the state in its early decades (Ben-Gurion, Sharett, Eshkol, Meir) leaders of the pre-state right-wing militias (Begin, Shamir), or the younger founders who were field commanders and bureaucrats at Israel's foundation (Rabin, Peres, Sharon). Even though 42 years of age separated them, they all shared in the struggle for Jewish statehood and in the early years of uncertainty about Israel's security and sustainability.
Three prime ministers (Netanyahu, Barak, Olmert) belong to the generation of the state, growing up in the '50s and '60s, cocky young sabras who while perhaps not taking Israel's existence totally for granted were fully at home in the realm of Jewish sovereignty and Israeli power.
Bennett and his partner Lapid, should either of them be sworn in, are the first prime ministers of a new generation, growing up in a much more confident era after the Six-Day War. It was a time when Israel's regional dominance was more pronounced and Israeli life was rapidly becoming less parochial and closer to a Western standard of living.
Their politics, family and religious backgrounds are different, but they share a type of ruthless pragmatism, unabashed Zionism and a sense of entitlement, typical of the Israeli upper middle class that's at home in Tel Aviv but very comfortable in Manhattan as well. In part, they're the products of the Netanyahu era and have learned their political styles from observing him, but they lack Netanyahu's deep-seated phobias and existential fears.
But between Bennett and Lapid, Bennett is more representative of today's Israel. Lapid ultimately is a product of the Tel Aviv media elite into which he was born and remains part of, while Bennett is much harder to pin down but is connected to a much wider range of Israeli groups without being beholden to any of them.
Bennett isn't just the first of the third generation of Israeli prime ministers, he's Israel 3.0: a Jewish nationalist but not really dogmatic. A bit religious, but certainly not devout. A military man who prefers the comforts of civilian urban life and a high-tech entrepreneur who isn't looking to make any more millions. A supporter of the Greater Land of Israel but not a settler. And he may well not be a lifelong politician either, though so far politics is the career he has spent the most time in.
Bennett is unlikely to spend very long as Israel's prime minister. If the new government defies expectations by surviving two years, he will abide by the deal to rotate the premiership with Lapid in August 2023, but after occupying the top job, it will be tough to get used to being just another minister again. And his chances of winning enough seats in a future election to return as prime minister are exceedingly slim. A leader of a small party serving as prime minister is a bizarre occurrence that will not repeat.
He's 49, and by his early 50s he'll have nothing to prove any longer in politics. If with Lapid he can make this unlikely government a success and stay the course for the next four years, he will be remembered as the prime minister who ended the Netanyahu era and helped usher in a period of political stability. It will be mission accomplished and time to move on to his next adventure. Just like other members of the Israel 3.0 generation, he has trouble staying in the same place for too long.
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Above: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the sultan of Oman, where he was warmly welcomed in 2018
IS NETANYAHU ABOUT TO LOSE POWER?
It looks like Benjamin Netanyahu's long stint as Israeli prime minister may be coming to an end, at least for the time being. At any rate, even if he survives a little while longer, the heyday of "King Bibi" may be over.
Haviv Rettig Gur, a senior analyst at the Times of Israel, and international affairs commentator Tom Gross discuss the Netanyahu legacy. How will he be remembered, both as an Israeli leader and as an international figure?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dznA8zJXTfc
(Recorded today, June 2, 2021)
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